Cowboys vs. Redskins Week 2 Pick ATS

Dallas Cowboys (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Where: NFL Football Week 2
Date/Time: Sunday September 15th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: FedEx Field Landover, M.D..
TV: FOX

Point Spread:DAL -4.5/WAS +4.5 (Best Line at BetOnline)
Over/Under Total: 46

The last seven days have been huge for the Dallas Cowboys. After settling a holdout with Ezekiel Elliott on Wednesday, the Cowboys made their franchise running back the highest-paid rusher in the NFL. Then on Sunday, the Cowboys obliterated the Giants despite the fact Ezekiel Elliott was on a snap count. Instead, quarterback Dak Prescott delivered one of his most impressive performances of his career by throwing for 405 yards with four touchdowns. It was a complete offensive performance that sent shockwaves through the NFC, and America’s team is back with another opportunistic rivalry match-up against the Washington Redskins where they are just 4.5 point favorites.

The good and the bad – Washington Redskins

The Redskins were nearly 11 point underdogs last week in a road trip against Philadelphia. Early in the game, quarterback Case Keenum shredded the Eagles defense with a 48-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis followed by a 69-yard bomb to Terry McLaurin. The Redskins offense scored on their first three possessions to take a 17-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. It was nearly perfect football from Washington for about the first 20 minutes of play. Head Coach Jay Gruden’s play-call was perfect and the offense executed flawlessly. Then things started turning and shed some light on the Redskins weaknesses.

The Eagles responded with multiple big plays in the passing game as Carson Wentz led a comeback effort. Before the whistle blew, the Redskins defense had relinquished 436 yards as troubles to stop both the run and pass prevailed. Overall, the offense did not look bad for the Redskins as Case Keenum held up as a capable passer and was able to capitalize on big plays down the field. However, we also saw the offense sputter a bit down the stretch when pressure started getting to Keenum, and it was pretty obvious the Redskins failed to establish any type of running threat. Starting running back Derrius Guice exited the game with a knee injury and is expected to miss some time to complicate matters in the backfield, and I highly doubt the return of Adrian Peterson will fix these issues in a week timespan.

Match-up favors Dallas on both sides of the football

As a result, Washington is probably looking at another outing this Sunday where they will look for Keenum to drop back 35-45 times. The problem I see is that this plays into the Cowboys defensive strengths. The Cowboys pass rush is the best in the division and among the top defensive fronts in the NFL. The Cowboys linebackers are excellent, and the secondary is improved. If they can keep pressure in Keenum’s face, I believe the Redskins are going to find themselves in an uphill battle throughout the game on Sunday.

Furthermore when the field is flipped, I also see Washington’s defense having issues stopping the Cowboys. I know Dak Prescott played out of his mind last week and we obviously cannot expect that type of performance every week. However, Washington had serious issues stopping the run which raises enormous red flags as Ezekiel Elliott’s workload gets ramped up. If the Cowboys’ offensive line opens holes for Elliott as I expect, Prescott will flourish off the play action. New Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore was brilliant with his play-calling last week and for the first time in years; the Cowboys were taking full advantage of their weapons. If that is a sign of things to come, Dallas may be one of the biggest threats in the NFC in 2019. For this week, I simply do not envision the Redskins having much success unless Dallas does a complete 180.

Dallas vs. Washington betting trends

The Cowboys also have the advantage if you look at recent betting trends. Dallas has covered the mark in their last five games against NFC East foes and is 6-3 ATS in their previous nine games against the Redskins. Meanwhile, Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against NFC teams and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 division games. The Redskins are also just 1-7 SU in their last eight games going back to 2018.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5