Cowboys vs. Giants Thanksgiving Bet: Team Total Over Pick

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
A Thanksgiving Day Bet

There’s no way around it – if you’re a sports bettor, you HAVE to have action on Thanksgiving.
I have about 15-16 different plays I’m charting in the NFL, but not a single one is active on Thanksgiving. So, it’s time for a “gut feel” pick.

Yes, I know I recently wrote about sticking to systems only while trying to get my NFL profits up, but like I said, it’s Thanksgiving, and having no action is totally unacceptable.

With none of my systems to rely on, I’m going to try something different, a first for this season – a team total, using the Dallas Cowboys to go Over 20 points.

It’s not the matchup the TV network and the league were hoping for, this is a meaningless game as both the Giants and the Cowboys have no shot at making the playoffs.
But bad news for them may be good news for me as hopefully this translates to a “What have we got to lose?” loosely played game that results in opening up the offense and putting some points on the board.

Let’s check the basics.
New York’s defense surrenders 23 PPG. That looks good for the 20 I need.

Dallas scores 20 PPG. That looks good too but that was when they had Dak Prescott at QB. With Dak sidelined, Cooper Rush took over three games ago.

In his first game under center the Cowboys scored six points against Philadelphia at home in Dallas.
Rush was 13-23 for 45 yards.
That 45 looks so unbelievably bad that I had to double-check it at a second source. Although it’s correct, I still find it hard to believe.
That’s a paltry 3.4 yards per pass average.
Pretty ugly.

His second game wasn’t much better, 10 points at home versus the Texans.
An optimist would say, “He showed improvement.”
A pessimist would say, “10 points? He still sucks.”

But there was improvement as he went 32-55 for 354 yards, one TD, one INT. Clearly getting a second week of practice with the first unit helped. Still, how did he throw for 354 yards, and yet the Cowboys only scored 10 points? The usual suspects – penalties and turnovers.

His third game convinced me to take a shot on the Over in this one. On the road at Washington, the Cowboys got their first win with Rush at the helm, beating the Redskins 34-26. Cooper was 24-32 for 247 yards, with 2 TDS and no INTs.

Dallas has lost five of their last six games, and they’re the opposite of perfect 0-4 in home games this year. Every other team in the league has won at least one home game this season except for one – the team they face on Thursday, the New York Giants.

I said it last week when they played Tampa Bay, and I’ll say it again this week – if you’re not playing well, you can’t ask for a better remedy than the Giants.
New York is just 2-9 on the season and has lost six straight.
In those six games, they’ve surrendered 20 points or more in five of the six.
Ya gotta like those numbers if you’re looking to hit 20 points this week.

In their 11 games this season, their opponents scored 20 or more points in nine games.
Ya gotta like THOSE numbers if you’re looking to hit 20 this week.

Motivation is always a problem with teams whose seasons are over, especially when it’s still November.
But it’s Thanksgiving, and they’re at home where they’ve yet to win a game, so I’m expecting a little Cowboy pride to show up for the hometown fans on Thursday.

Key Personnel Issues

Where do I start?
QB Rush, WR Lamb, TE Ferguson, and CB Diggs are all listed as questionable. Those are just the big names, but just as important to the Cowboy’s offense, guard Zack Martin and OT Tyler Smith are also questionable.
If even half of those guys stay on the sidelines, I’ll be lucky to get 10 points, much less 20.
I don’t expect the 20 points to come easily, I’m probably going to need a turnover or two by New York to get me over the top (I wish Daniel Jones was playing), but I think I’ll get there

When to Buy Recommendation

You can get + money if you buy this play at 20′, but I put out a little bit of extra juice to get the 20, -118.
A lot of books only post alternate lines with the hook on them, such as 19′, 20′, and 21′. If you don’t have books that offer you multiple options, you’re limiting your potential to be profitable. You have to be able to shop around for the best number.

Thursday’s play:
Dallas Team Total Ov 20, -118

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!