Cowboys vs. Dolphins Pick: Where is the betting value?

Dallas Cowboys (10-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (10-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 16

Date/Time: Sunday December 24th, 2023. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Dal +1/Mia -1

Moneyline: Pokes +100/Phins -115

Total: 52.5

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Just a week ago, the Dallas Cowboys appeared to be the hottest team in football on the heels of a five game winning streak, which included a dominant performance over the defending NFC Champions via the Philadelphia Eagles. Fast forward to today, and many are wondering if the Dallas Cowboys are simply overrated due to a relatively easy schedule. Realistically, that is how fast things change in the NFL, and the negative perception surrounding this Cowboys team stems from last week’s 31-10 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in perhaps one of the worst performances of the Mike McCarthy era. This Sunday, the Cowboys chance at redemption will be another uphill challenge when they meet the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

While the Cowboys will be looking to overcome an embarrassing loss, the Dolphins will be looking to keep their momentum going following a 30-0 shutout over the New York Jets. The Dolphins’ victory was highlighted by numerous big plays and turnovers from the defense and also incorporated big performances from RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle. Waddle specifically stepped up in a big way with eight catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Waddle was the go-to guy in the passing game as star WR Tyreek Hill missed the contest due to an injury. Fortunately for Miami, Hill is expected to return this week, which means Miami’s high-profile offense should be at full strength against a tough Cowboys defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

In last week’s blowout loss to Buffalo, the Dallas Cowboys defense was shredded on the ground by RB James Cook, who accounted for 221 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. While some may disregard the performance as a blip on the radar, I believe the blueprint was laid out in how to attack the Cowboys’ defense. The Cowboys’ dynamic defense is centered around an elite pass-rush and playmakers in the secondary. However, Buffalo never allowed the Cowboys’ pass-rush to be a factor by establishing the ground game. I think that is likely to be another approach that Head Coach Mike McDaniels looks for this week with Raheem Mostert and a healthy DeVon Achane.

Obviously, the Dolphins are more than just a running threat. They also have one of the most potent air attacks in the league with Waddle, Hill, and QB Tua Tagovailoa. The balanced attack will likely give the Cowboys all they can handle and perhaps take some of the fierceness away from the pass rush. Personally, I am more interested to see what happens on the opposing side of the football. QB Dak Prescott was posting MVP-type numbers before last week’s loss at Buffalo. WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks have all been posting impressive box scores. However, the majority of those statistics were against inferior defenses, even when you consider the pass defense in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Miami has a top 5 defense in pass coverage, pass rush, and run defense, according to PFF. If the pass rush is able to get home, this could be another very difficult challenge for the Dallas offensive attack.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in eight of the last 11 games on the road.
• The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Miami.
• The Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games.
• The Dolphins are 4-1 SU in the last five games.
• The Dolphins have hit the “under” in eight of the last ten games against the Cowboys.
• The Dolphins are 7-1 SU in the last eight games at home.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Prediction

I was starting to “believe” in this Dallas team before last week however the performance was a reminder that Dallas has holes to fill and their coaching is not always great. QB Dak Prescott is a confidence driven player and so is the Cowboys defense. I’m not sure they can bounce back in one week against a nasty opponent that presents so many match-up challenges. As a result, I’m picking the Dolphins here!

Jay’s Pick: Take Miami -1