Cowboys at Giants Predictions: NFL Week 4 Picks and Odds

Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. New York Giants (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 8:15 PM EDT
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: Prime Video

The Dallas Cowboys come to MetLife for a week 4 Thursday Night Football showdown with the New York Giants. This NFC East battle features two teams who are both 1-2, both straight-up and against the spread. And while that might follow the script for what people thought of the Giants, we see the Cowboys appearing to be in a state of some peril. On Sunday, they lost their second straight at home, falling to the Ravens, 28-25, which followed an embarrassing loss to the Saints the week prior. The Giants, meanwhile, return home on the short week after getting their first win of the season on Sunday—a 21-15 win over the Browns. Who should we get behind in this Thursday Night Football battle from East Rutherford?

What to Make of the Cowboys

It’s strange how perspective is so important in this sport, with people panicking over the Cowboys’ 1-2 start, while Giants’ followers accept the same win-rate as simply reality. In the interest of momentum, the Cowboys get some credit for Sunday’s fourth quarter that they’re hoping carries into this week, where they picked up three scores and came up just short. But to get flogged the previous week at home by the Saints, 44-19, and the following week to enter the fourth quarter down 28-6 is as putrid a 7-quarter run this team has seen in quite some time.

We see a Dallas defense with abundant star power getting bullied in spots. They can’t stop the run and we see them not being terribly physical or proactive, with a lot of individual stars on “D” more concerned with making big splash-plays instead of focusing on sound all-around defense. We see their own run-game in a state of shambles and last week, instead of their top receiver Cee Dee Lamb trying to turn things around, he was petulant, argumentative, and making turnovers and dropping balls. You’re seeing teammates starting to snip at each other.

On top of all that, you now have a Cowboys team that has taken one of the stronger home field advantages and made it something that doesn’t matter. Going back to when Green Bay cleaned their clocks in the playoffs last season to their losses to the Saints and Ravens, they’ve had one good quarter. The other 11 have been spent getting their hats handed to them. This doesn’t seem to be on paper the best spot for a short week road TNF spot for a team that seems to be in a dystopian state that might not be easy to snap out of in time.

Can the Giants Exploit the Cowboys’ Depreciated State?

Maybe, despite being in the same position overall, the Giants can ride their better spirits into something nice on Thursday. They got a nice win on Sunday. Instead of their star receiver chirping and sucking the life out of the room, we see rookie Malik Nabers ascending to his role with two TD catches on Sunday. QB Daniel Jones seems to be making the most out of what he has. While a backfield controlled by Devin Singletary isn’t ideal and there not being a ton to work with aerially outside of Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson, Jones has been capable at least. After narrowly losing a battle of field goals to Washington, we saw them looking pretty good on the road as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Browns, winning by 6. It was almost an embodiment of how they want things to go—an efficient and mistake-free game by Jones, a big game for Nabers, Singletary being productive running the ball and catching passes, along with Robinson adding what he can. That’s exactly what they got on Sunday.

Now at home, the Giants get a game that suddenly isn’t the daunting divisional matchup of which they’re accustomed. The Cowboys have spent the last several years making mincemeat out of their NFC East rival Giants, winning six straight and most of those being lopsided. On one hand, the Giants won’t be catching the Cowboys sleeping this week. Dallas is in emergency-mode and will be fighting hard to not have this regular season start getting away from them. Still, that urgency is a result of dysfunction and them wanting very badly for it to stop doesn’t mean it will. Not to mention, focusing solely on Dallas makes one neglect the other side—a Giants team with their own hopes and dreams that has shown in the last few weeks that they’re not easy pickings.

Can Dallas Rebound?

In theory, a familiar divisional pairing against a team that isn’t elite represents a decent-enough opportunity for Dallas to get back to being who they are. And while the short week seems extra-challenging this week, maybe less time spent ruminating on their predicament and getting right back to it is a better path for them. Maybe the way the front-running Cowboys’ defense got punched in the mouth by the Saints and Ravens is something the Giants can’t quite replicate. And if they are unable to get running downhill on this group with Singletary and Jones, the matchup will be more to the Dallas defense’s liking, where we see the things they do well start to register at a higher rate.

Take the Points

This optimistic view on the Giants this week doesn’t simply come down to Dallas being out-of-sorts, though that component doesn’t hurt. We see a Giants’ team out there really trying. A future star receiver in this league is laying down the foundation, while a maligned defense has overachieved to some degree, especially these last few weeks. And all that could certainly change even if a mid-grade version of the Cowboys were to show up on Thursday. But between Dallas’ narrower range of success on offense and the form their defense is in, the Giants can at least hang in there a little bit and get us the cover. I’ll go with the Giants.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the New York Giants plus 4.5 points.