Commanders vs. Titans: Spread Prediction & Analysis

Tennessee Titans (3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS) at Washington Commanders (7-5, 7-4-1), 12/1/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 1
Where: Northwest Stadium
TV: CBS

NFL betting odds

Spread: Tenn +5.5 / Wash -5.5
Money line: Tenn +200 / Wash -250
Over/under: 44.5

Washington started 7-2 this season but now owns a three-game losing skid, heading into Sunday afternoon’s inter-conference bout with Tennessee in Landover.

The Commanders and their exciting rookie quarterback were the talk of the League a few weeks ago after winning that game against Chicago on a Hail Mary. But you can’t count on hitting a Hail Mary every week.

Meanwhile the Titans, following a poor start, are playing better ball as of late and just pulled a nice upset down in Houston.

NFL Betting Odds

This week’s NFL betting market opened Washington at -6.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 45. Early betting action dipped that spread to -5.5.

Titans-Betting Preview

Tennessee is 2-2 over its last four games after winning at Houston last Sunday 32-27. The Titans, as 8-point underdogs, spotted the Texans the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 17. Tennessee later fell down 27-23 early in the fourth quarter but scored on a long catch-and-run touchdown to retake the lead, then tacked on a safety near the end to complete the upset.

The Titans also cashed in at +260 on the NFL betting money line.

Tennessee out-gained Houston 369-260, out-rushed the Texans 132-40, and won time of possession 34:26. But they also turned the ball over three times and allowed eight sacks, so it was far from a perfect performance.

Four games ago, the Titans beat New England in overtime 20-17. Three games ago, they gave the Chargers a decent game but lost 27-17. Two games ago, Tennessee gave Minnesota a decent game but lost 23-13.

So the Titans have been playing some decent football as of late, following their 1-6 start to this season.

But at 3-8 overall, Tennessee is playing for the future with a first-year head coach and a second-year starting quarterback.

Commanders-Betting Preview

Washington, meanwhile, totes a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at home to Dallas last Sunday 34-26. The Commanders favored at -10.5, led 9-3 in the third quarter, then fell down by two scores in the fourth. Then things got crazy. Near the very end, Washington scored on a minor miracle to get within a point but missed the conversion! The Commanders then attempted an on-side kick, but a Cowboy returned it for a touchdown.

So Washington became the first NFL double-digit favorite – out of six – to lose outright this season.

The Commanders out-gained Dallas 412-332 and out-rushed the Cowboys 145-91. But they also missed two field goals, turned the ball over three times, and gave up a 99-yard kick-off return for a score.

Two games ago, Washington led Philadelphia 10-6 through three quarters but lost 26-18. Three games ago, the Commanders led Pittsburgh 27-21 late into the fourth quarter but lost 28-27.

So after starting this season 7-2, Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS its last three times out.

At 7-5 overall, the Commanders would be the No. 7 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. But they’re only a half-game ahead of 6-5 Arizona at the moment, so nothing’s been written yet.

On the injury front Washington lists its top two RB’s, Robinson and Ekeler, as questionable for Sunday.

These teams met most recently two seasons ago, a 21-17 Titans victory also at Landover. But that was a coach and a quarterback ago for both these teams.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are 87-87 SU and 78-93 ATS this season.

Favorites are 125-54 SU, 95-81 ATS.

Teams that win time of possession are 114-65 SU and 112-66 ATS this season. Tennessee ranks 6th in TOP at 31:40, Washington 18th at 29:41.

Totals Report

The overs are 6-4 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

The overs are 8-4 in Commanders games, which are averaging 51 points.

The overs are 94-84 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Normally, we’d consider Tennessee, coming off a nice upset of Houston last week, a good candidate for a letdown this week. But we’re not sure Washington, a loser of three in a row, could take advantage of the situation. From there, Titans RB Pollard is coming off a good game, and Tennessee ranks 8th against the run; meanwhile, the Commanders are banged up at the RB spot and rank 29th against the run. So, we give the Titans a better chance of winning the ground battle. And teams that out-rush their opponents this season are 117-58 ATS. We won with Tennessee last week because we thought they could keep that game close, and we’re thinking along the same lines for this week. We’ll take the Titans plus the points.