Commanders vs. Saints Betting Preview: ATS Prediction and Pick

Washington Commanders (8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS)
NFL Football Week 15
Date/Time: Sunday, December 15th, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS -7.5/NO +7.5
Moneyline: WAS -380/NO +290
Total: 43.5

Following a timely week 14 bye, the Washington Commanders will return to action this Sunday with a road trip to square off against the New Orleans Saints inside the Caesars Superdome. Before the bye, the Commanders had dropped three of their last four games, falling from a 7-2 SU record to their current 8-5 SU mark on the season. As a result, the Commanders are no longer a lock to make the playoffs and must take advantage of a relatively manageable schedule over the next 4 weeks to capture a playoff berth. Going into Sunday’s week 15 showdown, the Commanders are 7.5 point favorites in what should be one of their best match-ups remaining on the schedule!

Despite a plethora of injuries and offensive issues that led to a 7-game losing streak earlier this year, the Saints have managed to win 3 of the last four games and are surprisingly still alive in the race of the NFC South. However, unlike Washington, the Saints have a pretty daunting remaining schedule where they will likely be underdogs in at least 3 of the four final games of the season. To complicate matters, QB Derek Carr will likely miss the next few games, if not the rest of the season, after fracturing his hand in last week’s 14-11 win over the Giants. The Saints are expected to turn to backup QB Spencer Rattler, who filled in for Carr earlier this season, though an official announcement has not been made.

Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

The loss of Derek Carr is enhanced by the fact that the Saints also lost TE/QB Taysom Hill just two weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. Therefore, New Orleans does not have many of the wrinkle packages in their arsenal. While the offense will lean heavily on RB Alvin Kamara against a subpar Washington run defense, they will still need some help from behind center. Earlier this year, Rattler had moments of success, but the inexperience overshadowed those moments. With WR Chris Olave also continuing to be sidelined, I’m worried that the Saints simply don’t have enough playmakers to yield optimism around their young backup quarterback.

On the other side of the field, Washington will get some defensive help with CB Marshon Lattimore making his season debut for the Commanders. Lattimore was traded away from the Saints back in November but has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Commanders defense will embrace the help but the story of this game will likely surround the Commanders offense. QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense have a dream match-up against a Saints defense that is vulnerable on the ground and through the air. If the Commanders can get the running game going with RB Brian Robinson, I would expect things to open up in the secondary, where WR Terry McLaurin should have a great match-up opportunity. As long as the Commanders limit their mistakes, the match-up from an X’s and O’s standpoint looks ideal.

Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• Washington is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 games.
• Washington has hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• Washington has hit the “over” in six of the last seven games on the road.
• Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against New Orleans.
• New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in the last nine games.
• New Orleans is 3-8 SU in the last 11 games.
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in the last six games at home.

Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

I like the match-up here for Washington, and I also like the circumstantial scenario following the bye and catching the Saints in a tough spot with a lot of injuries. There are simply more paths to a Washington cover for bettors to ignore, and I’ll take my chances with the big road favorite!

Jay’s Pick: Take Washington -7.5