Commanders vs. Ravens: Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Washington Commanders (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

NFL Football Week 6

Date/Time: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 1PM EDT

Where: MT&T Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

TV: CBS

The Washington Commanders take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in Week 6 action. While the Ravens were expected to contend this season, Washington comes into week six as a bit of a surprise, sitting at 4-1 and riding the play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Sunday saw them win their 4th straight game after a week one loss, thumping Cleveland 34-13. They’re on a roll, but come into Baltimore where they will be facing a Ravens team that has gotten things back on track after a concerning 0-2 start, winning three in a row, including Sunday’s 41-38 overtime thriller against the Bengals. Let’s break this one down!

Do We Defer to Baltimore’s Defense?

It’s not easy to lean on the Ravens’ defense after they just allowed an aerial bonanza to the Bengals last week, lucky to emerge with an OT win. And while they haven’t been bad in all their spots, they’ve really only had one game where they’ve really shined. It’s just when you look at this matchup, you can sort of call it a wash offensively, with the tipping point on the surface being the dicey Washington defense. It’s just that results this season have done nothing to confirm the Ravens can stop the multi-pronged Washington running attack, in addition to the improving aerial work of Daniels and his targets. But at home with at least the theoretically-better defense, maybe this is a spot where we see things start to resonate.

The X-Factor

By now, we more or less know what we’re going to get out of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense. It varies based on opponent and other week-to-week stuff, but the general range of what you’re expecting has been established. With Daniels and this Washington offense, we don’t really know yet. We’ve seen him start to come around through the air, though they are a bit strapped in that area in terms of targets. Terry McLaurin can be a viable threat, but the rest of their receivers and tight ends are guys who’d be fortunate to be the fourth choice on most offenses through the air. That lack of personnel aerially could limit Daniels’ ceiling in that regard. Still, a lot of damage and even some pass-catching can stem from a backfield that features the legs of Daniels, along with the multi-dimensional talents of backs Brian Robinson, Jr. and Austin Ekeler.

This is a tough spot, an out-out-conference road spot against a now-streaking Ravens team that has managed to increase its point-output with each successive week, scoring 41 last Sunday. But the Commanders are really on a nice run, scoring 114 combined points in their last three games, while outscoring their last two opponents, 76-27. Playing Cleveland and a hot-and-cold Arizona team throws that into a different light in relation to who they’re facing this week. We see that when this Washington offense is cooking and takes some pressure off this “D,” the Commanders’ formula for success can work. Whether what we saw at reduced levels will translate to this elevated context remains to be seen, and this week should give us a better idea.

Challenges for Washington This Week

This is a line in the sand moment where we see how real this start is for Washington. Baltimore is who they are, and they enter this on a roll. Last week, Jackson had 348 yards with four touchdowns while getting Derrick Henry untracked late when it counted most. We know what Lamar can do with his legs, and now we see the big-play ability of Henry coming to the forefront, almost running for 200 yards the previous week, with his addition to this offense being a big part of them getting off their backs to win three in a row. And while the weaknesses of the Washington defense have been shielded a bit in recent weeks with who’ve they played and with the offense taking center-stage, we now arrive at a spot where maybe we see the Commanders aren’t quite ready for prime-time.

Not to imply that the Ravens’ aerial-offense is above reproach. And last week’s spurt may have more to do with Cincinnati’s issues on defense than anything else. They have a deep cast, with WR Zay Flowers really being the only standout of the lot. TE Isaiah Likely can deliver here and there, but instead of the big games from Mark Andrews, we see more of a committee forming at tight end, with Andrews having really fallen off the map. Justice Hill offers a different look out of the backfield. You still figure Lamar and Henry are going to make it work in this spot. I think there’s a decent chance what we’ve seen so far has painted these teams in images that might not hold up for long, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. In that area, Baltimore might have enough under the hood offensively to bring some of the bad points out of the Washington defense.

Lay the Number

I always bristle in earlier-season spots such as these, where I’m forced to essentially ignore some of what I’ve seen leading up to this spot. I’ve seen a Baltimore defense be readily exploitable, with a rookie sensation QB for Washington turning that team’s fortunes around. So, what would compel me to lay nearly a TD on Baltimore this week? A lot of it comes down to the spot itself—a tough road-game for Washington against a team that is surging. I sense Lamar Jackson comes out ready and has a good game, where Washington struggles to keep up after a while. I picture Baltimore’s defense holding up a little better in a game, which should be pretty good. I’ll go with Baltimore this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Baltimore Ravens minus 6.5 points.