Commanders vs. Giants Week 7 Total Pick

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Betting Pick

Washington Commanders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. New York Giants (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)

NFL Football Week 7

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22nd, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, NJ

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: WAS -1.5/NYG +1.5 (Create some space by inserting either team into a massive NFL teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: WAS -125/NYG +100

Total: 40

Last week, the Washington Commanders snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 24-16 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. The win provided some immediate relief for Head Coach Ron Rivera’s coaching staff that has received a lot of criticism in recent weeks. On Sunday, the Commanders will try to back up their week 6 victory as slight favorites on the road against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Despite the many concerns for the Giants organization, they have always played well against Washington covering the spread in 7 of the last 10 games against the Commanders.

On the season, the Giants are just 1-4 SU and their struggles on offense, specifically the offensive line, have been well documented. However, the Giants covered as 15-point underdogs last week against the Buffalo Bills and had chances to win the game outright despite a mere 14-9 loss. The improved play on the defensive side of the football against one of the best offenses in the league, in Buffalo, has yielded optimism for this week’s showdown with the Commanders. However, the Giants are expected to be without QB Daniel Jones again this week, meaning Tyrod Taylor will get the start for the 2nd straight week.

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Betting Analysis

For this week’s Commanders and Giants match-up, the betting total is listed at just 40 points, and that is a direct correlation to the struggles for both offenses. Both the Giants and the Commanders offer the league’s worst two offensive lines. Washington QB Sam Howell has been sacked 34 times this season, which is by far the most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Giants quarterbacks have allowed 33 sacks on the season between Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor. To put things into perspective, the Chicago Bears and the disastrous start for QB Justin Fields are ranked the 3rd worst in the same category this season, and they have only allowed 25 sacks on the season.

Needless to say, it would not be surprising to see both defenses control the upper hand of this game. For Washington, the Commanders have also not been able to run the football, which is worrisome. RB Brian Robinson has just 303 rushing yards on the season, and QB Sam Howell is ranked 2nd on the team in rushing with just over 100 yards. The Giants’ defensive weakness this season has been against the run. However, I’m not sure Washington can exploit those weaknesses similar to how Buffalo failed to do so last week. Meanwhile, Giants RB Saquon Barkley appears to be healthy, which should give the New York offense some hope even with Taylor under center. However, Taylor played fairly well against Buffalo last week, and his ability to escape the pocket helps the offensive line issues. Therefore, I’m not convinced Taylor is the biggest downgrade in the wake of Jones’ absence.

Washington  vs. Giants Betting Trends

• Washington is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games on the road.
• Washington has hit the “under” in 13 of the last 20 games.
• Washington is 1-4 ATS in the last five games against the Giants.
• Washington has hit the “under” in six of the last nine games against NFC East opponents.
• The Giants are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Giants are 1-6 SU in the last seven games.
• The Giants are 1-9-1 SU in the last 11 games against NFC opponents.
• The Giants are 6-2-1 SU in the last nine games against Washington.

Commanders vs. Giants Betting Prediction

I believe this match-up has a high probability of being an ugly offensive game. I think the Giants have the better match-ups and may be able to pull out the win. However, I just don’t have a lot of confidence in anything the Giants do on a consistent basis. As a result, I think the “under” here is the best play on the board.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Under 40!