Commanders vs. Eagles Week 11 Picks: Finding Value in the Odds

Washington Commanders (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 14, 2024 at 8:15 PM EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: Prime Video

The Washington Commanders come into Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. This is a high-stakes NFC East battle between the top two dogs in the division—the more established Eagles and a team that has taken the division by storm this season in the surprising Commanders. Washington fell short last Sunday, coming out on the wrong end of a 28-27 result at home against the Steelers, ending a 3-game winning streak and making this important as the Commanders don’t want to drop consecutive games. The Eagles, meanwhile, stayed on-point on Sunday, notching their fifth consecutive win, a thorough 34-6 lambasting of another divisional foe in the Cowboys. What’s the right move in this Thursday Night Football divisional battle out of Philly?

Getting a Lay of the Land

It’s a tough short-week spot for both teams, considering the high stakes of the game, as this is the first battle between these teams this year for divisional supremacy. The Eagles maybe cruise into this with a clearer path, fresh off an easy walkover win, five straight victories, and not a ton of struggle in recent weeks. Washington, meanwhile, is coming off a hard-fought loss, in addition to some rugged contests leading up to this short-week road spot against a surging Eagles’ bunch.

There might be some holdout in terms of fully embracing the Commanders as a contender. I’d tend to opt for the school of thought that says when a long-suffering team latches onto some success as the Commanders have this season that, nitpicking the merit of that surge tends to miss the point. They’ve been great this season, covering the spread at an excellent rate and going from an afterthought to a team you need to watch. They’re basically a lock to notch their biggest season-wins total in many years and if they can go 4-3 for the rest of the season, they’d have the most wins they had in over 30 years. At the same time, as things heat up here in the last seven games, we’ll see if their early success was truly a representation of them being a good team now or if it was maybe something else. Truth be told, there have been some easy opponents on that ledger, with the Commanders looking a lot rougher when the opposition kicks up a level or two, as it does this week on the road against the 7-2 Eagles.

What to Expect from Washington

The combination of losing last week and having a high-stakes divisional battle in their midst should give rise to some good energy from rookie star QB Jayden Daniels and the rest of this Commanders’ bunch. He is very dangerous, both with his arms and his legs. Not having Brian Robinson, Jr. in there hurts, but between Daniels, Austin Ekeler, and a deep backfield, they can still run the ball well. The presence of Daniels has given rise to some better form from lead receiver Terry McLaurin, who had another 100+-yard game on Sunday. And while there are no other star players aerially, they have a lot of variety with guys who can do damage on a given week. Whereas we see Philly relying more on stars, with the bulk of their offense revolving around Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith, their offense is more focused than the Washington offense where it’s more of a cabaret approach.

With the Commanders, I’d be less-concerned whether their offense can continue producing at the same clip as I’d be with what can be expected of from this defense. And maybe that’s the area where there is some credence to the notion that they’ve benefitted from easy opposition. The last few weeks haven’t been that great, with Washington sometimes failing to come up with the same big stops and big plays they were coming up with through the first few months of the season. It’s something to ponder as they prepare to take on an Eagles’ team whose offense has become a more-bankable unit as the season progresses.

Possible Edges for the Eagles

Maybe holding the sideways Cowboys to 6 points last week is no big feat, but we’ve still seen the Philadelphia defense in better form as the season carries on. A Giants’ offense that gave Washington some issues came up with just a field goal against the Eagles. A few weeks ago, the Eagles held a good offense in the Bengals to only 17 points in Cincy. A home-Eagles defense does not typically provide a canvas for opposing offenses to showcase the things they do well. Washington has a sensational rookie quarterback and deserves all the credit in the world for this turnaround, something not everyone saw coming despite what they might tell you now. How much teeth the Commanders truly have, however, will be gleaned in spots like this. And it’s an awfully tough spot.

Take the Home Favorite

Despite both teams being amongst those with the best records in the league, neither is unassailable. That goes for the Eagles, too, as an up-and-coming team with a lot to play for, like the Commanders are not in any kind of impossible spot this Thursday. But that spread almost suggests a dead-evenness with these teams, and that might not really be capturing the at least slight supremacy the more established Eagles have over their divisional foes. In a tough game, I suspect the Eagles can get a little separation, notching the win and cover at home on Thursday. I’ll take the Eagles.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Philadelphia Eagles minus 3.5 points.