Commanders vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 12 Predictions Against the Spread

Dallas Cowboys (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (7-4 SU, 7-3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 24th, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Northwest Stadium Landover, MD
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: DAL +10.5/WAS -10.5
Moneyline: DAL +425/WAS -650
Total: 45.5

I think everyone would have to assume the Mike McCarthy era is officially over in Dallas. The real question is whether McCarthy will make it through the remainder of the season or if Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will be forced into a rare mid-season firing situation. Last Monday, the Cowboys dropped their 5th straight game of the season to the Houston Texans, and it was the 2nd straight week in which the Cowboys were beaten by at least 20 points. Needless to say, McCarthy and the Cowboys are in need of a rebound performance, which will be the focus with this Sunday’s road trip to play the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the Washington Commanders are in a much-needed rebound position for all of the right reasons. The Commanders have had an excellent season with breakout rookie QB Jayden Daniels. However, in recent weeks, Washington has suffered back-to-back hard-fought losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Despite the recent two-game losing skid, the Commanders are still playing quality football, which is not something that can be said on the Dallas sideline. As a result, the Commanders will be hefty 10.5 betting favorites when they host the Cowboys for their rivalry showdown.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

As everyone is aware, the Cowboys no longer have starting QB Dak Prescott, who went down for the season with a hamstring injury. Since Prescott went down, backup QB Cooper Rush has gone 0-2 as a starter and is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. Prior to Prescott’s injury, the Cowboys were already the worst rushing offense in football, and without big numbers in the passing game, the Cowboys have nothing to threaten defenses with aside from WR CeeDee Lamb, who is regularly getting double coverage from defenses.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the Commanders have one of the best pass defenses in football that has held opponents to just 184 yards per game through the air. Washington Head Coach Dan Quinn was the Dallas Cowboys Defensive Coordinator for the last 3 seasons and is very familiar with McCarthy’s game plan. As a result, I don’t expect any breakout performances this week from the struggling Dallas offense. Meanwhile, I do expect the Commanders’ balanced offense will continue their high-quality play.

The rushing threat of Daniels and tailbacks Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler have combined for one of the best rushing attacks in the league. Not to mention, the Cowboys can also stretch the field with their prize rookie QB and WR Terry McLaurin, who is finally seeing the numbers to match his talent. As a result, I don’t see many paths to the Cowboys winning the match-up on the defensive side of the football unless they can force a few turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends

• Dallas is 0-5 ATS in the last five games.
• Dallas has hit the “over” in eight of the last 12 games.
• Dallas has hit the ” under” in six of the last nine games on the road.
• Dallas is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Washington.
• Washington is 7-2-1 ATS in the last ten games.
• Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at home.
• Washington has hit the “over” in 13 of the last 19 games.
• Washington has hit the “over” in 12 of the last 17 games against Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Prediction

I think all signs point to this being a blowup spot for the Commanders who have been on the wrong side of this rivalry game in recent years. The situation, the match-ups, the momentum, and everything is pointing to the Commanders and I think this is a high-confidence play!

Jay’s Pick: Take Washington -10.5

Jay’s Pick: Take Washington -10.5