Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Prediction for Jan 5

Washington Commanders (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Sunday, January 5th, 2025, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS -3.5/DAL +3.5
Moneyline: WAS -210/DAL +175
Total: 44.5

Last Sunday night, the Washington Commanders pulled out a dramatic overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons to clinch a spot in the playoffs. QB Jayden Daniels likely sealed the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award following another brilliant performance that was highlighted by three touchdown passes and 127 yards rushing. As a result, the Commanders are playoff-bound and will be officially fighting for the #6 seed when they take the road this Sunday to close out the regular season in a rivalry match-up against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.

Despite the season being lost, the Cowboys had been hanging tough with wins in 4 of their last five games before they were completely destroyed by the Philadelphia Eagles in a 41-7 blowout last Sunday. To make matters worse, the Eagles were without star QB Jalen Hurts, which means the Cowboys suffered the blowout against a handicapped Eagles offense. As a result, the one-sided loss did not help the case for Head Coach Mike McCarthy, who is fighting for his right to return to Dallas. McCarthy’s future could be decided by how the Cowboys close out the season this Sunday at home!

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

For those wondering, Washington Head Coach Dan Quinn has been adamant that the Commanders would not rest their starters this week despite the fact the best the Commanders can finish is with the #6 seed in the NFC. With that said, the Commanders will try to avenge a 34-26 week 12 loss to the Cowboys earlier this year and an undeniable trend that Dallas has won 6 of the last seven meetings between these historic organizations.

For Dallas, the key to this game may come from RB Rico Dowdle against a vulnerable Washington run defense. With superstar WR CeeDee Lamb on the shelf for the rest of the year, QB Cooper Rush struggled to find any go-to targets in last week’s loss to the Eagles. TE Jake Ferguson was essentially a non-factor and the Cowboys’ receiving corps lacks the talent to continuously win match-ups. Therefore, the Cowboys’ offense will likely rely heavily on Dowdle on the running attack in an attempt to open up holes in the defense and potentially create opportunities in the passing game.

Personally, I think the loss of Lamb changes the dynamic of the Dallas offense and makes them much easier to defend. However, I believe the Cowboys also have concerns on the defensive side of the football. Washington QB Jayden Daniels is playing at an elite level that has rarely been seen by a rookie in the NFL. Furthermore, rushing quarterbacks have been kryptonite for the Dallas defense in recent years. If the Commanders are able to get things going on the ground with Daniels and RB Brian Robinson Jr, I expect Daniels will pick the Dallas defense apart with accurate intermediate throws down the field.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• Washington is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games.
• Washington has hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games.
• Washington is 4-1 SU in the last five games.
• Washington has hit the “over” in six of the last eight games on the road.
• Dallas is 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games.
• Dallas has hit the “over” in six of the last seven games.
• Dallas is 6-1 SU in the last seven games against Washington.
• Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

As alluded to in the match-up breakdown above, I think the Commanders are the pick here. The only concern is if Head Coach Dan Quinn decides to pull the starters early, but I am going to trust him and know that the starters will play the entire 60 minutes. As a result, I’ll take Washington with confidence!

Jay’s Pick: Take Washington -3.5