Commanders vs. Cardinals Week 4 Predictions: Can Washington Pull Off the Upset?

Washington Commanders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 4:05PM EDT
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: Fox

The Washington Commanders come to Glendale on Sunday for an NFC showdown with the Arizona Cardinals. After smashing the Rams the previous week, the Cardinals fell at home on Sunday to the Lions, 20-13. Now, in their third straight game at home, they look to even their mark against the Commanders. On MNF, the Commanders came into Cincinnati, winning 38-33, to push their mark to 2-1 with their second straight win. Can they keep it going this week, or will they hit a wall in Arizona? Let’s break it down!

Tough Spot for Washington?

Without even getting into the on-field matchups, we have one team in the Cardinals nice and dug in at home and having been there since right after their week one loss at Buffalo. Contrast that with a Washington team that has had just one home game and is now back on the road on the short week after going into Cincy for the win. It’s a lot of travel already for a Commanders’ squad that is being run a little ragged to begin the season. Still, with two straight wins, a lot of youth, and the season still being young, Arizona backers this week maybe shouldn’t bank on this to bolster their pick.

Good and Bad Signs for Washington

The first few weeks saw Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels doing pretty well while mostly relying on his legs to get the job done. He did that again on MNF, running in their first TD. But unlike the first two weeks, we saw him getting it done with his arm, completing 21 passes in 23 attempts, going for 254 yards and a pair of TDs. He got a 100-yard game from Terry McLaurin, and if we continue to see him showing alacrity with his arm on top of the running game they get with Daniels and Brian Robinson, Jr., this offense could be dangerous. Whether it will come off well every week is a big “if,” but we see what the Commanders are trying to do and that it just might be halfway-viable. Arizona has played well on defense the last two weeks, giving up a combined 30 points to the Rams and Lions, so this might not be a cinch for the Commanders. But you still get the idea that this Cardinals’ defense can be exploited in the right spot, as Buffalo did in week one.

Even if the Washington offense continues to ascend, they’re not guaranteed to get corresponding results from the other side of the ball. After a rough week one, they seemed to find their bearings in holding the Giants to no touchdowns in a win. But against the Bengals on MNF, it was a good thing their offense kept piling it on because they were not stopping the Bengals. With some juice along the defensive front remaining from their big-name defensive linemen, there’s nothing else that outstanding about any aspect of the Commanders’ defense. And if Kyler Murray comes out on-point on Sunday, he can do ample damage against this group with a decent receiver crew led by Marvin Harrison, along with James Conner doing his thing out of the backfield. There is a chance, however, that Arizona will be without stud tight end Trey McBride, who is in concussion protocol.

Similarities and Differences

There are some stylistic components where these teams mirror each other. Both have mobile quarterbacks who can do damage with their legs. Each QB has a capable lead back. Running backs can catch passes in both offenses. The Cardinals are trying to give identity to a receiver crew with a clear star emerging in Harrison. Washington has the same thing with McLaurin, a lead receiver who shows up in some games and doesn’t in others. Both teams have defenses that aren’t highly regarded and can be victimized. I think Arizona benefits a little from Murray being more established, the prospects of Harrison becoming more dependable than McLaurin, and the multi-dimensionality of Conner maybe giving their backfield a little edge. In addition, while time will tell, the Cardinals might get more solid showings from their defense than the Commanders will this season. One thing that Washington can cling to is that with Daniels, we just don’t know how good he can be after three games, whereas we know what we’re getting with Murray.

I think some of that give-and-take will manifest in this game, where a fairly wide range of outcomes seem feasible. I think the spot is far-better for Arizona, who have been home for three weeks taking on a scrambling-around-the-country Commanders bunch on the short week after a demanding MNF appearance. It’s just that the Commanders are coming in with such a head of steam that maybe momentum just wins out over road weariness. It’s just one of those games with a lot of pros and cons on both sides, making a strong opinion tough to come by in this spot.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

After seeing the Cardinals putting up 41 on the Rams a few weeks ago, Washington backers should brace for a worst-case scenario this week where Arizona lays it on thick and really gets the measure of this Commanders’ defense in the second half. The Cardinals are in a good spot—make no mistake. I just see this as being as close to a toss-up as one can imagine, where having a little better than a FG could very well come in handy. I picture a well-contested game, with the Commanders getting the cover this week in Arizona. I’ll take Washington.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Washington Commanders plus 3.5 points.