Commanders at Rams Total Pick & Betting Analysis for Week 15

Washington Commanders (4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 15

Date/Time: Sunday, December 17th, 2023, 4:05 PM (EST)

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: WAS +6.5/LAR -6.5

Moneyline: WAS +240/LAR -285

Total: 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams had their 3-game winning streak snapped last week in a devastating 37-31 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. I say devastating, not because the Rams lost to the Ravens but devastating of the way it happened. The Rams were more than one touchdown underdogs and played a very competitive game against Baltimore, arguably the best team in the AFC at the moment. However, Tylan Wallace was able to return a punt for 76 yards in overtime to score the walk-off victory for the Ravens and hand the Rams their first loss in nearly five weeks. This Sunday, the Rams will look for a rebound opportunity when they host the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium.

While the Rams’ season has been highlighted by injuries, they are still alive in the wildcard playoff race despite being under the .500 mark on the season. Currently, Minnesota has the final playoff position at 7-6 SU, but there are several teams still within striking distance at 6-7 SU, which includes the Rams. The Rams also have one of the better records in the conference, a key tie-breaker scenario. Therefore, if the Rams can put together a run over the next couple of weeks, they could still secure a playoff position, which few thought was even a possibility several weeks ago. For this Sunday’s contest against Washington, the Rams are currently listed as 6.5-point favorites and have covered three straight against the spread!

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Analysis

In terms of offensive production, RB Kyren Williams’ return to the lineup in recent weeks has proven to be extremely valuable. The Rams’ ability to run the football really opens up the playbook for Head Coach Sean McVay. Williams, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and breakout rookie WR Puka Nacua have all been battling lingering issues over the last several weeks but appear to be inching their way to being healthy. As a result, the Rams’ offense appears to be trending back in the right direction after suffering several critical injuries during the mid-part of the year.

For this week’s test against the Commanders defense, Stafford should be able to attack one of the NFL’s worst pass-defenses with the elite talents of Kupp and Nacua on the outside. In last week’s loss to Baltimore, rookie TE Davis Allen had a semi-breakout performance with 4 catches for 50 yards in replace of starting TE Tyler Higbee. I will be interested to see if Allen is used again this week to attack the Commanders’ inferior pass-defense over the middle of the field because I think opportunities will be there for this offense.

On the other side of the football, the Commanders have been tough to predict. QB Sam Howell has been inconsistent and is tied for the most interceptions (14) on the season. Howell has flashed competitiveness and some promising signs; however, they have just been too infrequent. The good news for the Commanders is that WR Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Johan Dotson should have opportunities against a Rams pass-defense that has struggled in coverage this season. I’m just not sure if they have enough firepower to keep the pressure on the Rams for a full 60 minutes of play.

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 1-6 SU in the last 7 games.
• The Commanders are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games on the road.
• The Commanders have hit the “over” in 5 of the last 6 games.
• The Commanders are 10-4 SU in the last 14 games on the road against the Rams.
• The Rams have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 6 games.
• The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games.
• The Rams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against the Commanders.
• The Rams have hit the “under” in 9 of the last 13 games against the Commanders.

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Prediction

The total for this game is sneaky high at 49.5 points making this match-up the 2nd highest total of the week, only behind the Bills/Cowboys game. The reason for the high total is because this match-up heavily favors both offenses, and I think we will see plenty of scoring. Both offenses have been hitting the “over” at a high percentage this year, and I think that will be the case again!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 49.5