Colts vs. Titans Analysis & Free Pick ATS
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 13
Where: Nissan Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL betting odds: IND +1/TEN -1
Over/Under: 43
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AFC South rivals clash when the 2-3 Colts take on the 1-3 Titans on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. The Colts are playing Joe Flacco at quarterback these days, and he’s looked good the last couple of weeks. Can the 39-year-old carry this team while young Anthony Richardson gets healthy?
Meanwhile, Tennessee just picked up its first victory of the season, mainly using backup QB Mason Rudolph. Starter Will Levis still tops the depth chart this week, but how much rope does he have left?
NFL Betting Odds
The NFL Week 6 betting market opened the Colts as one-point favorites, with an O/U of around 42. Early betting action then flipped the Titans into one-point favorites.
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Colts Betting Preview
Indianapolis is 2-3 on the season after falling at Jacksonville last Sunday 37-34. The Colts led early 7-0, trailed 34-20, but rallied to tie it 34-34 with under three minutes left before allowing the game-winning field goal drive.
The Colts, with Flacco at QB, produced 447 yards of offense but allowed 497 yards to the Jaguars. Indianapolis still hasn’t out-gained an opponent this season.
On the prop board, Flacco threw for 359 yards, surpassing his passing total of 241.5, while his three touchdown passes paid +375.
Flacco will start again this week as Richardson continues to nurse a sore oblique.
The Colts began the season with close losses to Houston and Green Bay, followed by narrow wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh. The average margin of victory in Indy’s games this season is just four points.
Titans Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Tennessee got its first victory of the season, beating Miami 31-12 two Mondays ago before taking last week off.
The Titans led Miami 9-6 in the third quarter, then pulled away against a Dolphins team starting its 3rd-string QB. Tennessee lost starting QB Levis in the first quarter to a shoulder injury, and Rudolph finished the game. Tennessee managed just 244 yards of offense but held Miami to 184. The Titans ran for 142 yards, their best rushing performance of the season, and controlled the clock for 35:25.
Levis is expected to start Sunday, but his leash might be short.
The Titans opened the season with two narrow losses to Chicago and the Jets, despite out-gaining both teams. However, five turnovers cost them those games. Tennessee was then beaten by Green Bay 30-14.
Realistically, a few plays here and there, and Tennessee could be 3-1.
On the injury front, Indianapolis lists QB Richardson, RBs Taylor and Sermon, and WRs Pittman and Downs as questionable. Bettors should check later injury reports before making any decisions.
Colts-Titans Recent History
Tennessee won five straight over Indianapolis through 2022, but last year, the Colts swept the Titans, winning 23-16 and 31-28 (in overtime).
Gardner Minshew, now with the Raiders, quarterbacked both games for the Colts, while Levis and Tannehill split duties for the Titans.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 39-37 SU, 34-41 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 49-29 SU, 38-39 ATS.
- Levis is 4-9 as an NFL starter.
- Flacco is 103-83 as an NFL starter.
Totals Report
- Overs are 3-2 in Colts games this season, averaging 48 total points.
- Overs are 2-2-1 in Titans games this season, averaging 42 points per game.
- Unders are 40-37 in the NFL this season.
- Unders are 3-1 in the last four Colts-Titans meetings.
Touchdown Props
- Colts rookie WR Mitchell, who saw seven targets last week, is +240 to score one touchdown and +1600 to score two.
- Titans RB Pollard, who had 24 touches last game, is +110 to score one TD and +550 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
We give Joe Flacco the edge in the quarterback comparison. However, Indianapolis is banged up in the backfield, while Tennessee boasts a stronger defense. We expect the Titans to win the ground battle. Teams that win the ground game in the NFL this season are 55-23 SU and 52-25 ATS. Plus, Tennessee is the healthier team, coming off a bye. We’ll take the Titans to cover.
