Colts vs. Texans Week 13 Odds & Pick

Indianapolis Colts (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (4-7, 4-7), 12/6/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 6

Where: NRG Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Ind -3/Hou +3 (Intertops – 200% Bonus! Details: Deposit $25. Enter bonus code ROOKIE200. They’ll add a free $50 to your account!)

Money line: Colts -180/Texans +150

Over/Under: 51

Following a detour into defeat last week, the Indianapolis Colts hope to return to the path toward the playoffs when they hit Houston Sunday afternoon to take on the Texans. The Colts sit just outside the AFC playoff picture at the moment and certainly can’t afford to lose another conference game. Meanwhile, Houston is showing some life as of late under its interim head coach, getting great play from quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans are lined as divisional home dogs for this one; who do we like for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 13 NFL betting odds opened the Colts as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -3 and dropped that total to 51.

Colts Betting Preview

Indianapolis just had a two-game winning “streak” snapped by a 45-26 loss at home to Tennessee last week. The Colts, down three defensive starters, allowed the Titans to drive the game’s opening possession 75 yards to a touchdown and never led from there. Indianapolis tied the score at 14-14 early in the second quarter but gave up three touchdowns over six minutes to trail 35-14 at the half. The closest the Colts got after that was 38-26 with just under three minutes to go, but they then gave up a touchdown return off an onside kick, and that was it.

Indianapolis got out-gained by Tennessee 449-336, out-rushed 229-56, and lost time of possession by a 36:24 split.

Until last week the Colts had out-gained each of their previous five opponents.

Two weeks ago, Indianapolis rallied to beat Green Bay 34-31 in overtime, and three weeks ago, the Colts won at Tennessee 34-17.

At 7-4, overall, Indianapolis trails the division-leading Titans by one game in the AFC South, and it trails Miami by a tie-breaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

More Picks: Mike Mann’s Pats vs. Chargers Week 13 Pick >>>

Texans Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Houston owns a two-game winning “streak” after beating the Lions in Detroit last Thursday 41-25. The Texans trailed 14-13 in the second quarter, then used a 10-0 run to lead 23-14 at the half. Houston then allowed Detroit to get within 23-17 midway through the third quarter but scored the next 18 points of the game to pull away for the victory and the cover as a three-point favorite.

The Texans actually got out-gained by the Lions 388-384 and out-rushed 109-77. But they won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a +7 points differential.

Houston has now been out-gained and out-rushed each of its last six games.

Two weeks ago, the Texans got out-gained and out-rushed by New England but won 27-20.

In fact, Houston is now 4-3 both SU and ATS since replacing Coach O’Brien with Coach Crennel.

Overall, at 4-7, Houston trails the Dolphins by three games in that AFC wild-card standings. The Texans are probably dead in the water as far as the postseason goes, but maybe they don’t know it yet.

NFL Betting Trends

• Indianapolis is 24-19 SU, 21-19-3 ATS in two-plus seasons under Coach Reich.
• Houston is 28-20 SU, 23-21-4 ATS with Deshaun Watson as the starter at quarterback.
• Home teams are 90-85 SU, 86-88 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Favorites are 114-60 SU but just 74-99 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Home dogs are 21-46 SU, 38-27 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 7-4 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 51 total points against an average over/under of 47.

Overs are 6-5 in Texans games this season, which are also averaging 51 points against an average O/U of 51.

Overs are 90-83 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Houston is coming off a nice performance on Thanksgiving but let’s face it, Detroit stinks. Mr. Watson and Co. won’t find the going that easy this week. On the other hand, Indianapolis is coming off a flat performance last week; we expect better this week. Also, while the Colts are out-rushing opponents by two yards per game this season, the Texans are getting out-rushed by 71 YPG. And according to our stat-keeping over the last several seasons, NFL teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’ll take Indy here, minus the points. Note: If you lost the ability to bet on games at -105 when 5Dimes left the U.S. market, did you know that you can still bet on games at reduced vig? Their old sister book BetAnySports separated from them and still offers -105! Get your reduced juice back!