Cleveland Browns(0-4SU,2-1-1ATS) vsNew York Giants(2-2SU,2-2-1ATS)
NFL Week5
Date/Time:October7th, 1:00PM EST
Where:MetLifeStadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV:Direct TV
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: CLEV+9.5/NYG-9.5
Over/Under Total:44
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The Cleveland Browns will have three extra days to prepare for this game, after losing to the Ravens 23-16 as 11.5-point underdogs last Thursday. The New York Giants are coming off a big NFC east match-up against rival Philadelphia, in which they lost by just two points. I think it will be hard for the Giants to play with the same intensity as they did last week and the stats suggest the same. The Giants are 8-14 SU and 7-15 ATS in a game after a loss to the Eagles. The 0-4 Browns are showing some signs of improvement. Their defense has improved in three straight games. When they lost to the Bengals on 9/16/12, it was the Browns who out-gained Cincinnati by 64 yards. That is certainly a good sign and if this game comes down to field goals, Phil Dawson is much better than LawrenceTynes.
BrandonWeedenhas beenOKso far with just a 60.2QBR, but he can make all the throws and is very smart. Trent Richardson is enough of a threat and is keeping defenses honest. What’s more concerning is the fact thatWeedenis averaging just 5.99 yards per attempt, the second lowest in the league. If teams don’t respect the passing game, theywill keepsending another defender to the box. The big key for the Browns will be trying to contain the Giants’ high-powered offense. New York is averaging 411 yards per game compared to just 311 for the Brownies. Eli Manning has a 90.1QBRand he averages 7.67 yards per attempt. On defense the teams are very even in terms of stats and schemes. It should be veryinterestingto watch. The Giants are nicked up ondefenseand offense, but do have good depth that will be tested.
This game might be a run fest as both teams will try to establish a run game early. The Browns areinconsistentdefending the run , yielding more than 117 yards per contest. Look for plenty of Andre Brownand Ahmad Bradshaw early as they try to even out the play-calling on offense. The Browns have a physical back of their own, along with a very solid offensive line that should have success against the Giants that allowed the Eagles to rush for 191 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt. The Giants front seven has been great rushing the passer but has really struggled this season in run defense.
This might be the easiest game (on paper) for the Giants this season. Cleveland is entering the game 0-4 buthave played teams tough, almost beating the Eagles in Week 1, losing 17-16. The Giants are coming off of a demoralizing loss that literally saw victory snatched from their hands by mentalnumerouserrors. What makes this game intriguing is how many key injuries the Giants have right now. Like I mentioned above, the Giants have been a money burner after losing the Eagles.
The Browns, despite beingwinlessthis year, have not lostby more than 10 points. They had a chance to beat the Ravenslast Thursday, getting two shots in the end zone but Brandon Weedens passes fell incomplete. Trent Richardson is a dynamic back who seems to get better every week. The Giants will need to shut Richardson down like they did toLeSeanMcCoy in the first half of last weeks game and like they did to Carolina backin Week 3. They can’t have a meltdown like they did in the second half last week when McCoy rushed for over 100 yards. The New York Giants are 5-1SUand 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Browns are 6-0-1 as dogs of 6 or more points in their last seven tries.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Cleveland Browns +9.5.
The bets are coming in at a frantic rate for the home team. I will fade the public and take the road dog in this spot. I think I have made a pretty compelling case for the Browns to cover this one and here is another. You know the Brownsare looking atthe defending Super Bowl Champions and saying this is our chance to turn the season around. They might not win but should play the Giants close to the best.If you wait until close togame time there might be some 10’s out there. Check the weather as we get closer. There is a 70% chance of rainfor East Rutherford on Sunday as ofpress time.
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