Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins Week 10 Best Bet

Cleveland Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)

When: Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m.

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: CLE +3.5/MIA -3.5 (GTBets – Get a 125% bonus with code PREDICTEM. They’ll also give you a FREE half point everytime you bet your favorite NFL, CFB, NBA and NCAAB teams!)

Total: O/U 49.5

Outlook

On the plus side, the Dolphins are coming into this game playing excellent football and have won three straight games. Granted, those three games came against poor competition in Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Chicago, but Miami won them all and looked good doing it. But the Dolphins have to keep up their strong play because they now find themselves in a dogfight in what might be football’s strongest division. Only 1.5 games separate the first-place Bills from the last-place Patriots, with the Dolphins sitting a half-game out of first and holding a tiebreaker with Buffalo. However, the Dolphins are far from easy street because they lose a tiebreaker with the Jets, who have beaten both Buffalo and Miami and are also half a game from first.

Cleveland is seeing its hopes dwindle yet again. The Browns were always going to be in a tight spot with the Ravens and Bengals in their division, but they haven’t made it much of a fight. The Browns did wallop Cincinnati, but their only wins since Week 1 against the Panthers have come inside the AFC North. They’ve already played both New England and New York and lost to both of them, with the defeat against the Jets a sign of things to come. Cleveland has actually done a wonderful job of staying in games; the Browns just don’t close the deal. Out of five defeats, only New England has beaten the Browns by more than three points. TThat’sfantastic for bettors, but it’s not good for the Browns themselves, who are highly likely to miss the postseason yet again because of their inability to win tight battles.

How the Public is Betting the Cleveland/Miami Game

The public likes the Dolphins, but the sharps know all about Cleveland’sability to stay under the hook. The spread has dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, even as 66% of tickets have come in on the Dolphins. The total has risen from 49 to 49.5.

Injury Concerns

Cleveland:

Cornerback Greg Newsom II (oblique), tackle Jack Conklin (foot), defensive tackle Perrion Winfrey (illness), tight end David Njoku (ankle), cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. (illness), cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion), guard Wyatt Teller (calf), linebacker Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah (knee) and defensive end Chase Winovich (hamstring) are questionable. Running back Jerome Ford (ankle), tackle Joe Haeg (concussion), linebacker Jacob Phillips (pectoral), tackle Chris Hubbard (illness), wide receiver Michael Woods II (hamstring), linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. (quadricep), tight end Jesse James (bicep), defensive end Chris Odom (knee), quarterback DeShaun Watson (suspended), wide receiver Isaiah Weston (knee), guard Dawson Deaton (knee), center Nick Harris (knee), wide receiver Jakeem Grant (Achilles) and defensive end Stephen Weatherly (knee) are out.

Miami:

Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (hand) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) are probable. Tight end Durham Smythe (hamstring), defensive tackle Raekwon Davis (knee), tight end Tanner Conner (knee), tight end Hunter Long (concussion), tackle Terron Armstead (toe), offensive lineman Austin Jackson (ankle), wide receiver Erik Ezukanma (eye), quarterback Skylar Thompson (thumb) and wide receiver River Cracraft (illness) are questionable. Offensive lineman Liam Eichenberg (knee), safety Brandon Jones (knee), cornerback Nik Needham (Achilles), linebacker Trey Flowers (foot), tight end Cethan Carter (concussion), cornerback Byron Jones (ankle), fullback John Lovett (undisclosed), tight end Adam Shaheen (knee) and cornerback Trill Williams (knee) are out.

When Cleveland Has the Ball

The Browns had to have seen what MMiami’srun defense allowed last week, and they know that II’tsgoing to be a mixed bag for them. On the one hand, CCleveland’srunning backs are better than Chicago’s as the Bears didn’t do much with their runners against the Dolphin defense. On the other hand, Chicago had Justin Fields run wild from the quarterback position, and Jacoby Brissett cannot and will not do that. The Browns don’t pass the ball a ton; it’s their second option when they need to keep teams honest against Nick Chubb.

Cleveland really needs to get a big game out of Chubb because Miami’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now. The Browns don’t want to give the Dolphins time to put up big numbers when Miami has scored 66 points in the past two weeks, so their goal is to keep Chubb running and keep the clock rolling with the Miami offense on the sidelines. If the BBrowns’ground game doesn’t do the job, they’ll have a hard time hanging around.

When Miami Has the Ball

The Dolphins’ pass attack has gotten much better ever since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion. Since a scary injury in a loss to Cincinnati, Tagovailoa has excelled, tossing seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. That said, he did pick apart two lesser defenses, as Pittsburgh and Detroit represent two of the four worst passing defenses in the NFL, so take his recent success with a grain of salt. Cleveland represents a bit more of a challenge in the air, as the Browns’ defense has been more middling.

The Miami ground attack is weak. Tagovailoa doesn’t run the ball all that much, and Raheem Mostert is a solid No. 2 running back but not the kind of back who can be a No. 1. But the Dolphins have nobody to complement him in the backfield, opting to instead air the ball out to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, assuming that Waddle is healthy enough to play. If he’s not, Cleveland will have a much easier time slowing down the passing game and forcing the Dolphins to play to their weakness.More Pickis: Get Loot’s Week 10 Monday Night Football WAS/PHI betting analysis 7 pick >>>

Betting Trends

These teams don’t play each other that often, but when they do, the Browns have been the better bet. Cleveland has covered in six of its past eight matchups with Miami with a push, and the road team has covered in three of the past five meetings. The under has a history of hitting for both teams, as the under is 5-1 in CCleveland’spast six road games and 4-0 in MMiami’spast four home games.

Weather Report

As long as the Dolphins cover the field in the days leading up to the game, these will be ideal conditions. Temperatures will sit at 83 degrees, with the wind blowing north at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Browns have a tendency to hang around against good teams, and their ground game should do enough to keep Miami’s passing attack from taking complete control. The Browns will likely be in the game to the final play, but they’ll again find a way to get beat in the final minutes.

That works just fine for betting purposes, though. Give me Cleveland and the points. Bet your Week 10 NFL predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500 at one of the oldest and best bookies on the web —> Betnow Sportsbook!