Cleveland Browns (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Home Team (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date and Time: Sunday October 27th, 2013 1pm EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
TV: CBS
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cle. +8/KC -8
Over/Under Total: 40
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Browns QB Brandon Weeden is not good. Weeden has completed 52% of his passes for 1,100 yards has five TD passes in 5 games. Weeden has been sacked 21 times gaining Weeden infamy among some of the most immobile QBs in NFL history. Weeden gets sacked around 10% of the time he drops back to pass. The Browns are in a flux right now. Cleveland plays hard but doesnt have Play Makers. Without Play Makers and installing Weeden as your Field General, Cleveland is over-achieving in 2013. With that being said, Jason Campbell will start this week.
Kansas City believes they have solved their football problems sweeping away their sub .500 seasons five out of the last six years. Kansas City brings in Andy Reid as Head Coach, adds Alex Smith as QB, and the Chiefs are 7-0 behind a Sack Attack defense! Everything is Awesome in KC! Or is it? All of KCs wins have come against teams with losing records (except one, Dallas) with a combined record of 13-33 overall. KC does have the 2nd largest point differential in the NFL at 12.5 points per game (average difference) and the Chiefs are 1st in points per game against giving up only 11.6 points per game. Factoring out the 3 worst teams in the NFL this year Jaguars, Raiders, and Giants-the Chiefs have a 5.2 points per game differential putting them around 13th in the NFL. Still, 7-0 is awesome and, You can only beat the opponents on the schedule. But the caution is: I wouldnt be making plans for the Super Bowl just yet.
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The NFL is pass-happy! If an organization wants to continually compete for the post season and the Lombardi Trophy those teams must have a quality QB. The Browns do not have that quality QB. The Chiefs apparently dobut appearances and facts may not live on the same street in Kansas City. Alex Smith is 20th in the League in passing and the Chiefs are 25th overall as a team in passing. Jamaal Charles is 3rd in the NFL in rushing and is on pace to equal his 1,500+ yard performance of 2013. Charles loves playing the Browns! In 2012, Charles rushed for 165 yards and 1 TD (80 yarder) against the Browns in the 1st quarterbut the Chiefs lost 30-7 with Brady Quinn as QB. Now Im not equating Brady Quinn with Alex Smith but the 2012 KC Chiefs and the 2013 KC Chiefs are pretty similar statistically. The 2012 were 22nd in the NFL in team rushing and the Chiefs are currently 18th. 2012 showed Kansas City 13th in total yards given up defensively and this year theyre 28th (this stat factors in defensive penalties, fumbles gained etc.) In Offensive Total Yards, KC is 19th and last year they ended up 24th. 2013 shows the Chiefs 6th in Kick Return Yardage and in 2012 they were 24th. That is a HUGE Stat! Better field position = better chance of scoring and/or pinning your opponents deep in their own end of the field! KC is 2nd in Punting in the NFL and Cleveland is 9th. Kansas City is 1st in the NFL in Kickoff Defense and overall, Kansas City is 2nd in total Special Teams performance!
Games are won and lost with Special Teams but this isnt late 1990s-early 2000s Virginia Tech and the ACC! This is the NFL and it appears the reason the Chiefs have a stranglehold on winning is because: NUMBER ONEthe Chiefs have played bad teams (13-33 thus far)andNUMBER TWOThe Chiefs are getting it done with Special Teams! Frankly, those arent good enough reasons for me to believe a resurrection has taken place in the Land of Great BBQ Sauce and Ribs! I think the Browns make other teams play bad because the Players are not in their correct spots, dont run the right routes, stunt up-front by mistake, and make plays in spite of themselves. I dont believe the Chiefs are as good as their record and I think the Browns are playing over their collective heads. With ALL that being said: The Browns cover pretty easily and will probably be in a position to win in the 4th Quarter! Also, it is going to be FREEZING COLD in Arrowhead Sunday! The UNDER is low, but
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cleveland +8.