Cleveland Browns (5-7 SU 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-10 SU 6-5-1 ATS) Week 14 NFL Football, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY 1 PM EST Sunday December 12, 2010 on CBS
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Cle +1/BUF -1
Over/Under Total: 41
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In an AFC match up between a couple of the worst teams in the NFL in the last few years the Buffalo Bills host the Cleveland Browns. While it looks as if Cleveland is out of the playoff picture they have won their last 2 games and there may be hope for them. Maybe not so much for the Bills, who have lost 2 straight since winning their first 2 games of the season and are tied with the Bengals and Lions for the 2nd worst record in the league.
In their last games the Browns looked solid on D in beating the Miami Dolphins 13-10 and the Bills were killed by the Minnesota Vikings 38-14.
The Bills and their dead-last rushing defense, which is giving up an average of 170.9 rushing yards this season, will get a heavy dose of Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis, who is the league’s 10th leading rusher. He has not played great against teams that have a great run defense, but the Bills do not have that, by a long shot, and Hillis will have a big game. Last week against the Vikings the Bills gave up 210 rushing yards.
Jake Delhomme will likely get the start in this game since Colt McCoy is still injured and while he did not put up eye-popping stats against Miami last week (217 yards 1 TD 0 INT), he limited his mistakes and that was big. The Miami win was the first game of the season where he had more TD’s than INT’s. The Bills only have 8 INT on the season, but 4 of them came in their blowout loss to Minnesota.
The main reason the Browns beat Miami last week was their D, which did give up 281 yards, but came up with 3 turnovers including a late one that led to a game ending FG. The Browns’ defense has the 2nd most INT’s in the league this season and they will add to their total in this game facing Bills’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has 4 picks in his last 3 games.
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The Browns rank 20th in the league in both pass and run defense and they will be facing a Bills’ offense that can light up the scoreboard, but has averaged only 15 ppg in their last 2 games. The key to this game is Bills’ RB Fred Jackson. When he runs the ball well the Bills win, as in his only 2 100+ yard rushing games this season Buffalo has won. He will get a lot of touches in this game, but will not break the 100-yard barrier.
Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the Bills and their 23rd ranked passing offense and he can air it out, but will get picked off at least once against the Browns and their ball-hawking secondary. He only passed for 158 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT last week against the Vikings and the Browns will take a page from Minnesota’s playbook and come after Fitzpatrick all game long. They will be successful doing that against a Buffalo offensive line that has given up 24 sacks on the season and have juggled their lineup because of injuries.
The Browns have covered the spread in their last 2 games they have played against the Bills and in an interesting betting trend Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on turf, which is the surface this game will be played on.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Two words sum up this game. Jake Delhomme. The Bills win convincingly and Jake proves once again why he doesn’t belong in the NFL.
