Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Bet

Cleveland Browns (3-13 SU, 4-12 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 4:30PM EST
Where: MT&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: ESPN/ABC

The Cleveland Browns take on the Baltimore Ravens to close out the regular season for both teams on Saturday in this AFC North battle. Things have long since been over for Cleveland in terms of making it to the postseason, as they limp to the finish line on the heels of a terrible season. Last week’s 20-3 loss to Miami understated the impotency they have shown down the stretch. The Ravens, meanwhile, are trying to lock up the division, something they can do with a win on Saturday. They could also do it with a Steelers’ loss, but Baltimore plays first and you’d think they would want to handle that themselves at home against a depreciated opponent. Last week, a 31-2 win over the Texans showed them to be in good form. Let’s break this one down!

Can Cleveland Provide Any Resistance?

I realize it’s common to overstate the disparity in NFL teams in the last week of the season when one team is fighting for something real and the other team is reduced to the spoiler role. One can generally overrate those factors, blindly signing off on whatever point spread is put before them. It’s still going to be difficult to reject that approach in light of how the Browns have looked. At least when Jameis Winston was in there, the chance existed for some offensive fireworks. Since putting in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the offense has screeched to a halt. In the last three games, the Browns have managed to score a disgusting 16 combined points. Not that Winston was the savior or that the Browns were going anywhere anyway, but it’s hard to grasp how this became the preferred course of action.

With Winston, there was at least some pep—the win over the Steelers and putting up 32 points the next week and, most importantly, for the sake of this game is that in week 8 at home, the Browns scored one of their rare wins of the season, beating the Ravens, 29-24. Winston took it to his divisional foes, throwing three TDs and having a really strong second half against the Ravens defense. You wonder how the Browns would even justify not having Winston in there this week and if you tune in and see Thompson-Robinson behind center, it will speak volumes of a team that really lost its way.

Can the Ravens Close?

They enter this with a decent enough head of steam, winning three straight as they make their push into the postseason. They have some things on the line and are at home looking to atone for what was their rock-bottom moment of the season in losing the first time around to the Browns. You’d expect an on-point Ravens team, with Lamar Jackson and Company ready to provide a strong closing with a set of conditions that should make it favorable.

Not that this affects the Ravens being able to win this game, but for ATS purposes, it’s worth noting that the Browns can still play a little defense when the stars align right. Despite their own offense having long since spiraled down the toilet, the “D” has been strangely stout in spots. Myles Garrett had a couple of sacks against the Dolphins on Sunday, and we see some others playing well, like CB Denzel Ward. When you need to cover big numbers with a team that is more about just winning the game and the other team can supply some defense, it can make what appears to be a slam-dunk and make it a more dicey proposition than what one may have thought.

The Giant Number

Seeing a number this big for an NFL game sets up a situation where you sort of end up disliking both sides. There’s nothing about the Browns in the last month that makes siding with them in any format with any point-allowance appetizing. But who wants to lay this many points? Granted, the Ravens have been hammering teams by margins exceeding the spread this week. But there’s something about them that makes them less-than-ideal in these roles. And for a team of their caliber to have lost this season already to bottom-dwellers like the Browns and Raiders shows they can sink to low depths on the right week.

So, what are your choices? You can get behind Cleveland, see them trot out DTR again and watch them flounder in all areas of offense, hoping enough personal pride on defense does enough to put the Ravens a bit off-stride. Or maybe just hope the Ravens know how bad the Browns are and that shows badly with their urgency-levels, even with the fact that Cleveland beat them this season already. Or do you opt for a Ravens team to leave no page unturned as they lay it on thick on a Browns team that is welcoming the end of the season? It’s not the easiest decision.

Lay the Number

Frankly, this maybe shouldn’t be anyone’s favorite bet of the week 18 schedule. That number is unsightly, and with the playoffs impending, there are different scenarios that make you think the Ravens could hold back if they have this one in hand, putting that point spread in some peril. Still, I’d rather roll the dice on that side of the equation than project a Browns team that has barely been functional in the last month to make this game in any way competitive. I’ll take the Ravens.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Baltimore Ravens plus 17.5 points.