Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans Pick | Wild Card Predictions

The Cleveland Browns come to NRG Stadium on Saturday for an AFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Houston Texans. The Browns actually won one more game than the Texans this season, with Houston hosting this game on the strength of winning the AFC South division. Last week, a win over the Colts locked up the division and a postseason spot. The Browns, meanwhile, rested a lot of guys in their week 18 loss to Cincy with their spot already locked up, as the Ravens had already clinched the division and the top seed in the conference. Can the Browns continue defying the odds, or will they run into a wall this week with CJ Stroud and the Texans?

A Look Back to Week 16

On one hand, it’s convenient that we have such a recent game between these two teams upon which to refer. On December 24, the Browns came into this very stadium and pinned a 36-22 loss on the Texans. But then again, with Houston QB CJ Stroud out of action that week and Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the show, maybe it’s not the best tool to use for getting closer to making a good pick in this game. It puts a lot of pressure on the Houston defense when their offense is not doing well, and the entire team flow is disrupted. They’re a lot different with Stroud. Still, Cleveland has to be licking their chops a little after seeing Joe Flacco pick this “D” apart, with Amari Cooper going for 265 yards and two touchdowns. While there could be some promise for Cleveland backers this week with how the Browns dealt with the Houston “D” in that game, it still would seem to fall well short of being a roadmap for what’s going to occur this week.

Who is Closer to Their Peak?

Hats off to Houston for getting things together just in the nick of time. With Stroud returning to the fold, they closed the regular season with wins over the Titans and Colts to win their division and be in the position to host a playoff game. It’s just with Stroud still not seeming 100% and without some of the weapons he had at his avail earlier in the season, we’re seeing a Houston team not showing the offensive vitality that had them looking so dangerous earlier in the season. While Cleveland is actually the team that has been forced to shuffle more pieces in and out of their offense, they have been more resilient in doing so. Things even got better in certain cases, specifically with Flacco taking over the offense. Conversely, the obstacles Houston has faced have ended up registering in a much more negative way.

Then again, with two straight wins and a close to the season that surprised many people who expected the Texans to fade into non-relevance, you can’t just push them to the side dismissively. The coaching that lifted a team from the dumps into the postseason is still there, as is their star rookie QB, who really made it happen for this offense this season. It’s just that you wonder if the recipe has been disrupted. Tank Dell added a lot to this offense, and he’s on IR. The big games from Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown have disappeared. And sure, Nico Collins has emerged as the alpha receiver in this offense and is a major threat to explode in this game, as well. But they’re still going against a really tough, stout, and playmaking defense this week. And doing so when not being all that close to the peak offensive form they showed earlier is a cause for concern.

Matchup Issues

Houston will be looking to take a diminished offensive package against a Cleveland defense that can really bring the heat. No longer boasting of 4 targets who can all exact damage, Houston is left with Collins and whatever is left, going against some of the best defensive backs in the conference. Stroud offers more reliability and mobility and could do better than the Texans did last time with the turnovers, sacks, and whatnot. But even with the Texans being the recipient of some good fortune with Flacco throwing multiple picks, it was a grind. And with all the things Cleveland can do through the air and with a multi-pronged attack on the ground, a Houston defense that has lagged behind their offense will be pushed to its limits in this game.

But before we go casting the Browns as some iron-clad proposition, let’s pump the brakes a little too. Part of you is hesitant to bet against a squad that overcame so much to still be a winning team this season. But it’s not like they won’t give Houston opportunities. We’ve seen Flacco get bailed out in games where he is committing turnovers, but in a road-playoff context, those things can register in a far more malicious way. Beyond it just seeming off-script for Joe Flacco to be making a playoff push in 2024 is the very real possibility that the things that led to him being a forgotten man up until now will surface in this ultra-elevated context.

Take the Points on the Home Dog

While not being in love with the Houston offense at this point and the Cleveland “D” providing a not-so-appealing matchup, I think this where some things catch up with the Browns. Having Amari Cooper and Myles Garrett banged up doesn’t help, either. I see Stroud getting this offense to perform a little better than they did inWeek 16 while capitalizing better off the Cleveland mistakes to make this a tight game where I’m inclined to take the points. I’m going with the Texans in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Houston Texans plus 2.5 points. Question: Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the years by betting at reduced odds! Be smart! Start saving big money TODAY by making the switch to -105 odds at BetAnySports Sportsbook! You’ll be so glad you did!