Cleveland at Washington Betting Analysis & Pick | Week 5

NFL Week 5 – Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders

Where: Northwest Stadium (Landover, MD) ,br. When: Sunday, October 6th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: FOX

Betting Odds

• Spread: Washington Commanders -3.0
• Over/Under: 44.0

Game Overview

An AFC vs. NFC showdown of two teams heading in different directions will take place Sunday at 1 PM as the Cleveland Browns will head on the road to take on the Washington Commanders. There is definitely some intrigue in this matchup as fans are wondering if the Browns can shake off the rust or if the Commanders will continue their winning ways.

Prior to the start of the 2024 NFL season, the current landscape in the AFC and NFC would surprise most, and it wouldn’t have been shocking if these teams had records that were opposite to those of the current team. But in order to assess this game and make the right pick, we have to look at recent history and live in the present rather than wonder what could have been. The pedigree of the Browns and Commanders may not make this game jump off the page, but in my opinion, this will be a tightly contested affair that appeals to all football fans.

Cleveland Browns Overview

The Cleveland Browns enter Week 5 with an unexpected 1-3 record and have lost their last two games. They had a favorable schedule in those weeks but were unable to string together consistent play in order to beat the Giants and the Raiders. Their only win on the season comes against the Jaguars, who have yet to crack the win column and are the only team in the NFL without a single victory.

Offensive Struggles

The main issue plaguing the Browns is their horrific offensive output. Behind quarterback Deshaun Watson, Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive statistical category. They are 30th in total yards, 29th in passing, 26th in rushing, 27th in points scored, and are converting on 3rd down at the lowest rate in the NFL. To summarize, this offense can’t do much of anything.

Watson has only tallied four touchdowns, thrown three interceptions, and boasts a measly 74.4 QBR. Even with Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy as his primary targets, Watson is averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. The connection between Jeudy and Cooper has been inconsistent, and neither has reached the threshold of 100 yards receiving in a single game. The injury to David Njoku has added to the complacency, but we may see his return here in week 5. While the run game has not been prolific, there is a case to be made that with the Browns trailing constantly, they have been forced into passing situations. Jerome Ford has averaged a solid 5.2 yards per carry, but only accounts for 50.8 yards per game on average. A porous offensive line adds insult to injury, and they have allowed their quarterback to be sacked 19 times already.

Defensive Strength

If there is any bright spot for Cleveland, it’s their defensive group. They rank top 10 in both total yards allowed as well as pass defense. The Browns are allowing opponents to rush for 123.3 yards per game, again, likely due to the fact that they have found themselves behind on the scoreboard often. They will need to play a clean game on defense to try and give their offense short-yardage opportunities.

Washington Commanders Overview

The Washington Commanders, on the other hand, have been on a terrific run as of late. They find themselves on a 3-game winning streak and are looking to keep momentum going behind their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels.

Commanders’ Offensive Success

Washington is the best in the league at converting 3rd down opportunities and has averaged 30.3 points per game so far. Their 393.5 yards of total offense per game is good for 6th in the league. A major contributing factor to the offense’s success has been the ability of their signal caller to extend plays with his legs and scramble when needed. Daniels’ arm looks lively, and he is tough to bring down behind the line of scrimmage when he escapes the pocket. But perhaps the wildest stat of all is that Daniels is completing passes at an 82.1% clip, which is unheard of in today’s game. Over the past two weeks, he has been able to consistently find his number-one wide receiver, Terry McLaurin. With this type of passing proficiency, there are very few defenses in the league that can stop the Commanders.

Defensive Concerns

Defensively, head coach Dan Quinn cannot be happy with his team’s performance to date. While they have done enough to win games, they have allowed their opposition to score 25.5 points per game and pass or run with relative ease. This Washington defense is also the worst in the league at stopping 3rd down conversions, yet it has not stifled them yet. If they can find a way to play better defensive football, this team will be a real threat in the NFC for the foreseeable future.

My Pick: Over 44.0 (-110)

Taking an over in any Browns game may seem like a disastrous move, but they face a defense here in week five that will not pose much of a threat. Cleveland has the offensive skill players to score enough points to contribute to the total, and receivers should find themselves open often. At some point, this offense will click, and this is arguably their best chance. If David Njoku returns, he will provide another dimension both as a receiver and as a blocker that will improve their output. On the other side of the field, what more can be said about the Commanders’ offense? They are running on all cylinders right now, and not even the stingy Browns’ defense will slow them down to the point of this game going under the number.