Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Recommended Bet 11/16/22

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: CBS

Point Spread: CIN -4.5/PIT+ 4.5 (MyBookie)
Over/Under Total: 41

The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North collision in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off the bye, which followed a rollicking 42-21 win over the Panthers, where Joe Mixon scored five TDs. Now rested, they take on a Steelers’ team that saw some better developments on Sunday with a 20-10 win over the Saints. At home again this week, they look to finish the season sweep on their division rivals. Who can get the upper hand in Pittsburgh on Sunday?

Clues from Their First Game?

A lot has changed. The Steelers have a different man under center now in Kenny Pickett, while the Bengals are starting to see things pick up after a lull. Still, a Steelers’ backer who has seen little to celebrate this season could take some solace in the Steelers’ 23-20 overtime in week one. The Steelers’ pass rush wreaked havoc on a Bengals’ offensive line that began the season in awful form. They look for more of that, and getting TJ Watt really helps that, but it might be harder this week, even with the Steelers at home for this one. Then again, the Bengals don’t have the services of Ja’Marr Chase this time around, making them less explosive aerially. Still, if I were a potential Steelers’ backer this week, it’s iffy how much comfort I’d derive from that week one overtime win.

Things Picking Up for Pittsburgh?

In the last month, they had one embarrassing game against the Eagles but have otherwise been deceptively solid. They beat Tampa Bay, narrowly lost to the Dolphins, before coming back from the loss to Philly with a nice win against the Saints. We saw the Steelers’ defense really getting after it with two picks and another couple of sacks from Alex Highsmith, who was really a handful in this week’s one matchup. On the one hand, the Steelers’ defense is dealing with some injury setbacks, and their secondary has been duck soup in spots. But with a rigid front and big plays raining in from all phases of the “D,” they can still make a positive impact.

Offensively is another story for the Steelers. Not a ton is going right. That line isn’t really up to snuff, which is bad news for a rookie QB like Pickett. With some lively legs, he can add to a run game that thankfully saw a little surge from the previously-dormant RB Najee Harris last week. RB Jaylen Warren is starting to show some life, and there are talented ball-catchers with receivers Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth. Still, with two touchdowns and eight picks, Pickett hasn’t shown much aerial chops as of yet. I think the main takeaway is that while teams like the Eagles and Bills were able to blast the Steelers, most of their other games have been tight, where it was hardly a breeze for backers of their opponents to cover. The results the Steelers are generally able to produce probably exceed their reputation a bit, where people think they’re one of the worst teams in the conference. They’re probably a notch above that.

Bengals Back on Track?

After a bye week, the storyline might have faded for some, but we saw a Bengals team putting it together after a tough start to the season. But the Chase injury seemed to be a real issue, especially after Cleveland cleaned their clocks in their first game without him. But the way they just opened up on Carolina the next week with Joe Mixon flipping out, it offered some hope that they got back on course. On the one hand, laying a beating on a team like the Panthers isn’t enough to signal anything, but that O-line is playing better, as is Joe Burrow. With a multitude of weapons on the ground and even still aerially, this offense can still pop. And maybe a week off helped rest some weary legs on an offense that has been dealing with some nagging injuries this season.

While different things happening on the offensive side of the ball for the Bengals have commanded most of the attention this season so far, the defense has been about as erratic. This is a good spot, going against an offense they already controlled for much of a game. They play with a pretty wide range of form from week to week. We’ve seen them really clamp down on teams while allowing offenses that aren’t that great to flourish from time to time, as well. But more often than not, they’re pretty rigid. The pass rush hasn’t been great, but the secondary can make a lot of plays, and the defense as a whole doesn’t have any real glaring weaknesses. Against a Pittsburgh offense that is often struggling, could that be enough?

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

While having this sneaking suspicion that the Bengals aren’t the same without Chase, while Pittsburgh is just an easy team to underrate, I still see the rested Bengals able to get the job done this week. Maybe Cincy was made to look better than they are against Carolina, and it’s not going to be that easy this week, with Pittsburgh still able to do the things that troubled the Bengals the first time around. But with Cincinnati looking to start putting together their postseason case starting now, I sense that their advantages and urgency will override the Steelers’ defensive playmaking ability. I’ll take the Bengals this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Cincinnati Bengals minus 4.5 points.