Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins Pick 12/22/19

Cincinnati Bengals (1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-11 SU, 7-7 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 22nd, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
TV: CBS

Point Spread: CIN +1 / MIA -1 (5Dimes)
Total: 46.5

Takeaways From Week 15

The Bengals enter into this game in maligned form as they own the worst record in the NFL. Most recently, Cincinnati was in action at home last week when it hosted the New England Patriots and summarily thumped 34-13 by the defending champions. As a result of the score, the Bengals were unable to come in under the number as a 10.5-point favorite at kick-off. Cincinnati has failed to produce a cover in two consecutive matches after winning their sole victory this season over the New York Jets three weeks ago, staging an outright upset as a 3.5-point underdog.

Most recently, the Dolphins were in action against the New York Giants when Miami came to the Big Apple to square off with Big Blue at MetLife Stadium. Closing as a 3.5-point underdog and a high-volume public play, the Dolphins were nowhere near close to getting its backers to the cashier window when they were defeated 36-20 by the Giants. Overall, Miami remains 7-3 ATS in their previous ten outings.

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How the Public is Betting the Cincinnati-Miami Game

At the moment, 73% of the consensus is leaning on the Dolphins in the early going. In spite of this, action has seemingly come in Cincinnati which took the line down by a half of point from its opening price of +1.5.

The Historicals

The Dolphins and Bengals last met on October 7th, 2018, in Cincinnati, where the Dolphins were defeated by the Bengals 27-17 to enable Cincinnati to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. Overall, Cincinnati has won the last two meetings between both sides and produced a matching 2-0 ATS record over this present streak.

Betting Trends

For those that enjoy playing Totals markets, the Under is 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five meetings between the Bengals and Dolphins. Embellishing further on this narrative, the Under is also 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 Cincinnati road games.

Injury Concerns

Neither Cincinnati nor Miami have declared any injury concerns to key players as they venture into this AFC conference match-up.

Why We Like Cincinnati To Cover:

Some other sports betting sites would argue that the Dolphins are undervalued in this position and should be laying a couple of extra points to the visitors. I would firmly disagree with that preposition with respect to the fact Miami has been the more profitable team as a whole to back this season, and they are in a spot to be overvalued because they have won two of their three victories in their 2019 campaign at home. On the flip-side, Cincinnati has yet to win a game on the road this season. Yet, the market is taking a clear position here that it perceives the Bengals have a chance of doing so. This is the first time this season that the Dolphins are also priced as the chalk, signifying that all seven of their covers this season were likely as a result of backers taking advantage of Miami played at inflated numbers. After all, such would be the case with Miami failing to cover in its four games out of the gate, so this is bound to happen to garner some action on the Dolphins as no one would want a part of them otherwise. Before one dives in on the Dolphins, it is also worth noting that this is a football team that owns the worst scoring defense in the NFL, giving up 31.1 points per game. While neither team has an offense to marvel in, Cincy’s defense gives up nearly a touchdown less per game (25.4 points per contest – 25th overall). By virtue of the contrast in defensive play alone, I am hard-pressed, laying even a point with the Dolphins even to a team like Cincinnati.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Cincinnati +100

Depending on where you shop around, you can find the Bengals priced at evens (+100) to win outright on the Money Line, and that’s how I am planning to play this one. I’ll pass on the point and take the Bengals to earn their second and likely last win of the season as the victory will be nothing more than a morale booster as the Bengals head into off-season activities. Please make no mistake, this contest is not a clash of titans, but we’re on the side that offers the better value.