Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers ATS Prediction

Point Spread: CIN +5/SF -5 (Bovada)

Money Line: CIN +195, SF -235

Over/Under Total: 45

The Cincinnati Bengals come to Levi’s Stadium on Sunday for a big week 8 showdown with the San Francisco 49ers. The Bengals were the recipients of what they are hoping was a useful bye week, following an uneven first six games of the season. There have been positive signs; however, with two straight wins, including a 17-13 win over Seattle before the off-week, the Bengals look to keep it going on Sunday. They aren’t being eased back into action, taking on a San Francisco team that surely will be looking to atone for their recent issues after dropping their second straight with a 22-17 loss to Minnesota on MNF.

Back to Business for Cincy?

Overcoming a really ragged start to steady the ship at 3-3 speaks well of the direction the Bengals and Joe Burrow are heading. This is still not what they envisioned, and a win over Arizona where they only separated late and a narrow home win over the Seahawks where Joe Burrow had 185 yards against the Seattle defense doesn’t signal a return of the vintage Bengals. Their recent track record and some better health with the bye week makes it so it’s hard to not expect a top-end version of the Bengals to resurface soon. Burrow started the season hurt, and things got sideways. They almost saw the season get away from them before grinding their way back to 3-3. Then they get the off-week with a chance to register a win that would put wind in their sails, get them over .500, and start putting that bad start to the season in the rearview.

There are still some things standing in their way. On the road against this San Fran defense in a stadium many of these players have never seen is a tough way to come off the bye triumphantly. The 49ers’ defensive front is fierce—both stout and attacking. We’ve seen this Bengals’ offensive line wane in spots. Burrow has been exposed to the pass-rush, and the run game is definitely not a part of the Cincinnati offensive profile that is getting better over time. It only makes Burrow’s connection with his targets more important, but outside of Chase, we haven’t seen consistent chemistry with other pieces on this offense. And with that line not always delivering, diminishing returns from the run game, and other issues, including a lack of production from the tight end position, this Bengals’ offense faces some tough questions this week.

Can the Bengals’ Defense Rise to the Occasion?

Perhaps hidden in the past few weeks with the Bengals’ mini-surge is the performance of their defense. They clamped down late against the Cardinals and were instrumental with big plays and key stops against a strong Seattle offense is helping the Bengals get the close win. They’ve played in tandem with the offense in most spots. The few times the offense laid an egg, the defense wasn’t much to speak of those weeks. But even with the offense far from being in top gear, the Bengals have been solid on “D” three of the last 4 weeks, allowing a combined 49 points to the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. Let’s see if they can do it to their fourth and most difficult NFC West opponent this season as the Bengals cycle through that division. The SF offensive line is not easy, but with Sam Hubbard, BJ Hill, and Trey Hendrickson bringing the heat up-front and a defense that has combined for eight picks, we see this side of the ball being more of a factor.

Can San Francisco Snap Back into Shape?

In their two straight losses, they lost 22-17 and 19-17, making it seem as though the defense has stayed on point, as the offense has taken a dip. And that has been the case, with some mistakes from Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey being dinged up, and Deebo Samuel missing time. It’s just that they looked so good a few weeks ago moving to 5-0 with a smashing of the Cowboys, with these last two games going over like a lead balloon. But at least we’re not seeing the kind of team-wide dysfunction that can derail a whole season. Seeing them lose to the Browns and Vikings in consecutive weeks isn’t a great look perhaps, but those looking to start low-rating the Niners now might end up regretting it.

The Niners are at home, but face a similar opponent to what they had on MNF this week—an offensively-gifted team that has some ground to make up after a rough start. The status of Deebo won’t be known until closer to game-time, but one would imagine the emphasis for Kyle Shanahan and his staff this week will be in getting this offense back on track. It’s hard to tell what it is exactly. Is it Deebo being hurt? Are they showing more of a conservative approach with McCaffrey? Either way, I’d suspect this week we see them turn it loose a little bit, as a three-game swoon at this point in the season would qualify as a crisis.

Take the Home Favorite

It’s not easy when one team is rested off the bye and the other is coming off an MNF game where they continued to see things go bad. In that sense, one can understand an optimistic view on the Bengals, who have, in fact, looked better. Cincinnati, while a more-promising proposition in light of the Niners’ recent failings, almost would have rather seen San Fran enter this with a win. Now, there’s the urgency factor and the notion that a talented and well-coached squad will be angling hard this week to not drop another one. I see the Niners coming out on top this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 5 points.