Cincinnati at Miami Pick ATS

Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-4, 8-3), 12/6/20
Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 6
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS

Point spread: Cin +11.5/Mia -11.5 (Find the top sportsbooks)
Money line: Bengals +440/Dolphins -585
Over/Under: 42

This Dolphins-Bengals game was supposed to be a showdown between rookie first-round quarterbacks; instead, we get a career journeyman against a back-up the Broncos discarded. Nonetheless, Miami is chasing a playoff berth and can ill-afford a stumble against an inferior opponent like Cincinnati. But can the Dolphins cover double-digits? And how are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 13 NFL betting odds opened Miami at -10 for this contest, with an over/under of right around 43. Early betting action then bumped the Dolphins a point and a half, to -11.5, and dipped that total to 42.

Bengals Betting Preview

Cincinnati totes a three-game losing skid into Sunday, after falling at home to the Giants last week 19-17. The Bengals allowed New York to drive the opening possession of the game 76 yards to a touchdown but tied it on a 103-yard kickoff return for a score and led 10-7 late into the second quarter. Cincinnati later fell down 19-10, pulled to within one score and got the ball back with a minute to go, but fumbled it away.

However, the Bengals came through with a back-door cover as underdogs getting 6.5 points.

Cincinnati, with Brandon Allen making his fourth career start at quarterback in place of the injured Joe Burrow, got out-gained by the Giants 386-155, out-rushed 142-40, lost time of possession by a 37:23 margin and lost the turnover battle 3-1. Also, the only Bengals offensive touchdown came against New York’s prevent defense.

Cincinnati actually started 7-2 ATS this season, putting enough points on the board with Burrow to keep most games close as underdogs. But three weeks ago the Bengals couldn’t cover 6.5 points against Pittsburgh and two weeks ago they couldn’t cover two points against Washington. And they got lucky to cover last week.

At 2-8-1 overall Cincinnati is playing for pride from here on out this season. How much they’ve got is up for debate.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami, meanwhile, just bounced back from that disappointing defeat at Denver two weeks ago to beat the Jets in New Jersey last week 20-3. The Dolphins, with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at QB, spotted New York an early field goal but led 13-3 at the half. Miami then blanked the Jets in the second half to secure the win and money as a 7.5-point favorite.

The Dolphins out-gained New York 345-260, out-rushed the Jets 104-87 and won first downs 22-10.

Miami is averaging 353 yards of total offense per game this season when Fitzpatrick starts, just 240 when Tua Tagovailoa starts. So maybe they should stick with ol’ Fitzmagic.

At 7-4 overall the Dolphins trail division-leading Buffalo by one game in the AFC East but also lead Indianapolis by a tie-breaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

These teams have played two common opponents this season; both beat Jacksonville but while Miami also defeated the Chargers 29-21 Cincinnati lost to the Bolts 16-13.

These teams have split two meetings over the last two seasons. Two years ago the Bengals won 27-17, while last year Miami won a crazy game 38-35 in overtime in Week 16, as the teams combined for over 900 yards of offense.

We do not expect a repeat of that performance this Sunday.

NFL Betting Trends

• Cincinnati QB Brandon Allen is 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS as an NFL starter.
• Miami is 9-11 SU, 13-7 ATS with Fitzpatrick as the starter at QB.
• Home teams are 90-85 SU, 86-88 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Favorites are 114-60 SU but just 74-99 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Double-digit favorites are 15-1 SU but only 7-8 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Totals are split 5-5-1 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 47 total points against an average over/under of 47.

Unders are 7-4 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 44 points against an average O/U of 48.

Overs are 90-83 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Miami is much better offensively with Fitzpatrick rather than Tagovailoa and its defense has held six of its last seven opponents to 21 points or less, four to 17 or less. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a mess, playing without Burrow and RB Joe Mixon and with the 26th-ranked defense. We’ll give the points here with the Dolphins. STOP betting on games at -110! YOU-ARE-WASTING-MONEY! Start laying only -105 at BetAnySports! Make the switch! You’ll be so glad you did!