Chiefs vs. Steelers Week 17 ATS Prediction and Key Matchups

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: Netflix

The Kansas City Chiefs come to Acrisure Stadium on Christmas Day to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game presents some unique challenges coming into this on the short-week. On Saturday, the Steelers dropped their second in a row in a punishing 34-17 loss to the Ravens. On the same day, the Chiefs were able to get to 14-1 on the season with a 27-19 win over the Texans. Can the Chiefs thrive on the road this week perhaps feeling a bit weary? Or will the Steelers reverse course before beginning a fall from grace after a 10-3 start to the season? Let’s break it down!

State of Each Team Heading into Week 17

With three games in a ten-day span, it’s fair to ask if one can expect a prime version of the Chiefs to surface this week. On one hand, those were pretty easy and non-demanding wins. In addition, the way the Chiefs have used personnel this season, they have some key guys on that offense whose legs should still be pretty fresh. And to secure the top-seed, they have some margin for error perhaps, but still have to keep winning as of now. On the other side of this coin is that we see Patrick Mahomes a little gimpy, which could force them into a more-conservative offensive approach. There are a lot of older guys on this roster, players who could find some fatigue setting in during the latter stages of this contest with such a heavy workload in a ten-day span. In total, it’s a tough road spot with some older players on a short turnaround where the urgency might not be sky-high.

The loss on Saturday was costly to the Steelers, as they would have really added a big nugget in their favor in their goal to win the AFC North. As it currently sits, they are tied atop the division with the Ravens, against whom they are 1-1. They have seen a more-timely arrival to this game, without the condensed schedule. But with two straight losses, they are risking utterly blowing all of that good momentum they built up over the first ¾ of the season. The offense has been in a bit of a rut the last two weeks and against this Kansas City defense, it might not be the easiest time to get things on the right track.

Issues for the Steelers

While still having a good season on their hands, there was always the possibility that things were going to sour for Pittsburgh. Their recipe for success isn’t the most solid, and with some concerning injuries, this is a challenging part of the season that will determine if the Steelers enter the postseason as a real contender or an afterthought. While they can exact some damage with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren coming out of the backfield, is that something they can count on delivering in this spot against the Chiefs’ defensive front? And if George Pickens isn’t back, as one would tend to suspect on the short week, they’ve left with some pretty slim pickings aerially, with Calvin Austin appearing to be the number one choice. They still have some marginal weapons, but they haven’t really seen anyone step up this season, other than Austin getting a little surge in his third season.

Still, a home Steelers’ defense offers some challenges to what appears to be a depreciated Mahomes. He dug deep for the win against Houston. And while the Chiefs have been up-and-down against the spread lately, they’re continuing to show a nose for the winner’s circle. One would expect the same this week, but in the event that they’re sagging a little, this is the right defense to help bring that to light. But while we’ve seen some flat showings from the Kansas City offense this season, the Steelers hit this spot with their “D” not flying high after giving up a lot of points in three of their last four games. It’s not just the offense that has struggled recently. They’re going to need to be a lot more-stout and crank up that pass-rush again this week if they want to make their presence count.

Food for Thought

With the veteran leadership on the Pittsburgh sideline between longtime head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Russell Wilson, the urgency to atone and avoid a slide into darkness will serve as a sharp motivator for this game. Wilson, in particular, whose pick-six on Saturday was a big part of the losing equation, should really be feeling the heat right about now. For the Chiefs, with the hard work of the regular season mostly completed, do they coast into the postseason? Granted, from a won-loss standpoint, banking on a KC letdown hasn’t really paid off. But with Mahomes not at 100% and some older weary bodies with the postseason not far off, do we just see a little natural regression with the Chiefs?

Take the Points on the Small Home Dog

There are some elements at play here that lead one to think it’s an OK spot to take a stab on the Steelers. They’re at home. The urgency should be high. They’re catching what could be a weary version of a road-Chiefs team that might not have the stomach for the all-out war that could potentially await. Still, even with all that, the spread isn’t that big and asking the Steelers to win or stay within two in this game seems like a big ask. It’s just that if you’re looking to time a good spot for the Steelers getting points at home in what could easily be a really close game, this seems like a realistic time to do so. I’ll take the Steelers and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 2.5 points.