Chiefs vs. Panthers Prediction: Can Carolina Keep It Close?

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs come to Charlotte for a week 12 showdown with the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. It’s not often in recent seasons that you can be in a week where the Chiefs are coming off a loss, and the Panthers are coming off a win, but this is one such week. The Chiefs got their first taste of a setback as they dropped a 30-21 game to the Bills on Sunday. Carolina, while still in the dumps at 3-7, has shown some pluck since getting Bryce Young back behind center, winning their second in a row two Sundays ago with a 20-17 overtime win over the Giants. Now, coming off the bye, can the Panthers keep it rolling, or is a big reality sandwich rolling into town in the form of an irritated Chiefs team? Let’s break this one down!

Urgency for the Chiefs?

We hear little soundbites emanating from after the loss to the Bills and how this loss will be used as motivation for the Chiefs. And they do, in fact, have a real agenda. It’s not easy to think about certain things when you’re jetting out to a 9-0 start. But things are always tenuous in this league and with now just one lone setback, the Chiefs now are one loss away from their top seed in the conference being jeopardized. While, on the one hand, they still have some buffer with which to work at 9-1, I’d imagine they’d be on point this week. And if they hadn’t lost last week, that’s not something you’d be inclined to say as the two-time defending Super Bowl champs enter this game. In this wonky locale out of conference against an opponent that doesn’t command a lot of respect, this would normally be a week where you’d be within your rights to forecast the Chiefs not really being shot out of a cannon. On the heels of what happened last week, the Panthers may no longer be able to rely on that.

What Can Carolina Do This Week?

Beating the Giants and a Saints team that’s still trying to find its footing might not count for much in the grand scheme of things, but for a team that’s on their backs at 1-7 to start showing life is worthy of note. And these were, in fact, narrow wins against bad teams that were particularly bad the weeks they played Carolina. Nevertheless, the Chiefs will, in fact, be catching a version of Carolina that is at their high-water mark of the season. Since losing to the Broncos on October 27, they’ve been home, this being their third straight home game, sandwiching a bye-week. They’re nice and dug in at their home quarters, feeling good about two straight wins, rested, and in a pressure-free spot against one of the best teams of all time. While there are certainly some football-related aspects of this matchup that don’t cooperate with the Panthers’ efforts this week, from a morale standpoint and in terms of just having a good spot, the Chiefs aren’t really catching many breaks facing the Panthers at this juncture in time.

Still, the Panthers have only really seen their defense thrive in very specialized scenarios. Not that there isn’t any optimism to be gleaned from the past two weeks, but the idea of Patrick Mahomes coming into town should have the Panthers “D” looking closer to how they were looking several weeks ago. And it’s no longer viable to use the Kansas City offensive mish-mosh against them where they don’t really have stars anymore but rather just a really deep cast of contributors. And if you were inclined to ding the Chiefs for that, it would have to be at the absolute highest level, which this game and opponent is not. This is a spot where it’s hard not to forecast a productive afternoon for Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, and Travis Kelce and then take your pick from a deep receiving crew. Last week, even in a losing effort, backup TE Noah Gray caught two TD balls. There’s a lot for a Carolina defense to keep track of this week.

Issues for a Panthers Cover This Week

After a rough outing against the Bills on Sunday that was understandable on some levels, I’d look for a Chiefs’ defense to find its bearings sooner rather than later. For a team so maligned, the Panthers have some juice, especially if somehow they can get rookie running back Jonathon Brooks out there this weekend. Chuba Hubbard has enjoyed a big season. Young has looked better since getting back after being benched. They have no aerial stars but some good young talent that can spring forth with a big game here and there. Still, when you’re putting up 23 and 20 points against the Saints and Giants at home, it doesn’t bode well for a ticked-off Chiefs “D” rolling into town. We can see their improvement, how this is as good a spot as they’ll have to compete in a context over their heads like this, or the points they’re getting with the spread, but it’s really tough when that Panthers’ offense grinds to a halt.

Take the Points

I can see why taking the Chiefs in this spot is just the more comfortable bet. The Panthers need a lot of stars to align before fancying them being even moderately-competitive with the Chiefs. I do think the Chiefs will win, with Carolina being able to do enough things to offer them a little pushback. The resistance might not be abundant, but I somehow feel they’ll do enough things right to cover the spread in the end. I’ll go with the Panthers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Carolina Panthers plus 10.5 points.