Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX: Expert Predictions and Betting Tips

Kansas City Chiefs (17-2 SU, 9-10 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS)
Super Bowl LIX
Date/Time: Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 6:30PM EST
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Fox

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. These are the two best teams in the league, entering this one a combined 34-5, including the playoffs. The Chiefs punched their tickets in the AFC title game, beating the Bills, 32-29, and once again proving that they have the uncanny knack of steering games in their favor come this time of the season. The Eagles, meanwhile, thumped the Commanders in the NFC title game, 55-23, scoring their third win of the postseason and putting themselves in position for a shot at glory in this one. Who should we get behind in what looks to be a competitive Super Bowl? Let’s break it down!

First Things That Jump Out

Part of you wants to defer to the Chiefs’ track-record and how they always seem to make it work, now going for their third straight Super Bowl win. This especially matters in games where it’s hard to imagine it not being close. It’s a major hurdle for an opponent to be able to compete with the Chiefs late in games when Kansas City, Andy Reid, and Patrick Mahomes just seem to have the magic touch. And while they gave up some to the Bills last week, the Kansas City defense and many aspects of the Chiefs’ team have saved their best for last.

One also gets the sense that the Chiefs were able to overcome teams with more apparent flaws than what the Eagles bring to the table. With the Chiefs’ offense sometimes more subdued or at least devoid of stars having huge games, the Eagles counter with Saquon Barkley, a guy who could conceivably take over a game. And granted, the Chiefs aren’t going to be easy pickings against the run, but then there’s still Jalen Hurts, along with weapons AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. And this Philadelphia defense could provide stern resistance for the Chiefs.

Not to oversimplify the situation, but two years ago, when the Chiefs beat the Eagles, 38-35, in the Super Bowl, we saw the Chiefs do what they wanted to do—Mahomes was efficient and ran the ball well, spraying it around to different receivers with Travis Kelce leading the way. The “D” chipped in with a score. The Eagles, meanwhile, saw Hurts take over the offense, throwing for over 300 yards and running for three TDs, as they came painfully close. Brown, Smith, and Goedert all had good games. A lot of things have changed, but if that game is any kind of starting point and you add the component of Saquon Barkley into the mix, it’s not hard to start seeing things the Eagles’ way.

But Not So Fast…

The Chiefs have not been a team where opponents can bank on having their star players shine. Between the Chiefs just happening to be tough against the run, the “D” peaking at the right time, and the coaching staff’s ability to prevent opposing players from going hog-wild, a giant game from Barkley is no guarantee. You could maybe say this about the Eagles, as well, but in the last few years, there has been a shift in the strengths of the Chiefs, going from a team that wipes you out with offense to a more complete football operation. I’m not so sure the point output from their Bowl a few years back will be duplicated in this one.

It’s easy for bettors to find themselves dealing with a mirage when assessing the Chiefs. You see an offense led by one of the best quarterbacks ever, but whose main star is a tight end at the end of his career, with a veritable mish-mosh of contributing cast members. On the other sideline is the far more centralized Eagles’ offense, anchored by their star back, a clearcut number one and two receiver, and a tight end who can be a big part of the plan. It’s a more traditional and, in many ways, a much more appealing offense around which to wrap one’s mind. But with the Chiefs, it’s important to note how they have continued making it work with this approach, and the cumulative talents of all their capable different pieces are more than enough to cut the mustard.

Questions

Will the Chiefs be able to drag this game into the mud? Of course, they’d like to somehow get things to fall so they run away with it. But what they really don’t want is some big come-from-behind effort. They want the defense to rule the day, do enough to hang around, and have things up in the air late, where they have the confidence of an old champion to pull out the win. Or will the star-power of Barkley and others on the Eagles’ sideline put a dent in the Chiefs? Or do you just defer to Mahomes over Hurts? A lot of things in this game are canceled out by other things. And when that appears to be the case, the innate ability the Chiefs have to win counts for something.

Lay the Small Number

From an almost absurdly-primitive way of looking at this, I just feel the Chiefs will be more difficult to dissuade than the Eagles. Kansas City is going for their third in a row and while the world doesn’t revolve around sentimentality or records, the Chiefs are a machine that is hard stop at this point. And while the spread isn’t much, stopping a train like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl would represent a massive feat. This will by no means be easy and there are a lot of elements at play that make this an uncomfortable stance, but I’m taking the Chiefs and laying the small number.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 1.5 points.