Chiefs vs. Browns Betting Preview: ATS Prediction & Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS)
NFL Football Week 15
Date/Time: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs come into Ohio for an AFC battle with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. While adding a nice edge to this Cleveland offense, Jameis Winston couldn’t get it done on Sunday, falling to the Steelers, 27-14, in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score suggested. They now come back home after back-to-back road games to host a Chiefs team that once again got by the skin of their teeth on Sunday Night Football, with a last-second field goal getting them over the hump against the Chargers, 19-17. They look to keep it going this week, as they push for the top seed in the conference as they go on another run for glory. Let’s break this one down!

The Two Sides to Cleveland Being an X-Factor

Since Jameis Winston has taken over as quarterback for the Browns, their offense is infinitely more dangerous. On any day, he can connect with a nice array of pass-catchers, with Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and TE David Njoku getting a bulk of the work. It sort of hit a wall last week against a Steelers team they had beaten a few weeks previously. And that’s a threat anytime this Browns offense and Winston take on a competent defense like the one the Chiefs bring to the table. But they’re still a bigger threat now than they would have been weeks ago when they were just going through the motions with Deshaun Watson. At least now, they’re dangerous.

The Browns are also a team that can implode, and at 3-10 and coming off a non-competitive loss last week, that possibility is very much on the table. Against the kind of all-around competence that the two-time defending champion Chiefs can deliver, it might not pair advantageously off the Browns mistake-prone backyard style of play. And against a Chiefs team that reminds you of a friendly adult racing a youngster and just doing well enough to win, sometimes you can’t help it against a Browns team that can do a good enough job at undermining themselves.

Chiefs: A Difficult Bet?

It’s actually becoming a somewhat-dependable pattern of the Chiefs not exerting themselves in games and just banking on being able to get it done in the end. It’s downright peculiar to go seven straight games without covering the spread and be 6-1 in that span, as the Chiefs have done. They are so dependable in late-game scenarios that they can let every game be up for grabs late, knowing Mahomes will put them in the right position. While that might bode well for a comfortable defending champion, saving energy for the games that really matter and getting through the season in one piece, this conservative approach has little appeal for a person betting. Against a 3-win team where they have to cover a number, you’d like to see a team geared to really lay it on thick.

Again, some of that is mitigated by the self-sabotage the Browns inflict on themselves. With a passing game that can actually be electric at times comes a lot of turnovers. Winston can get an offense moving, but he can sure put it in the hands of the defense, as we have seen in his decade-long career. In addition, the Chiefs will not be facing a defense that is holding up very well. Sure, the Chiefs can be laid back with putting up points even against bad defenses, but there have been times of late when the Cleveland “D” has really plummeted to depths where even a reserved KC offense can thrive.

Underdog Appeal

There is a vast array of quality you get in different underdogs around the league. For example, if the Chiefs were coming into Jacksonville this week, another 3-10 team, how excited could you be for the Jaguars? This 3-10 team is a little different. They’re out there trying. We see the excitable Jameis Winston with his pre-game pep-talks and you know he’s going to be pumped up this week. In a season where the Browns have so little to celebrate, he knows adding these little nuggets are important and how beating an 11-1 two-time Super Bowl champ would help this franchise move on from a bad year.

The flaws on the Browns are too numerous and cumbersome to list. They’re underdogs. They’ve won three games this season. That’s the story. But in any sport, when you’re dealing with a pronounced underdog and entertaining a position, it’s good to see they do something well. I’d rather take my chances on a team that at least has the capacity for a high-octane offensive performance than a team that is just a little below-average in all areas. With the Browns, there’s the flip side of that coin, where a byproduct of that danger-element is a blizzard of mistakes where it’s almost impossible for the opponent to not cover the spread. Still, I prefer underdogs who at least have a perceivable path to good things.

Take the Points

I’d hate to come in right as the gravy-train for betting against the Chiefs gets derailed. And this very well could be a spot where the very together Chiefs just brush aside the marauding efforts of the renegade Browns with callous indignation, cruising to a win and cover against their overmatched foes. I just think we are still at that point in the season where the Chiefs won’t feel any abundant reason to flip the switch just yet. And with the Browns pushing hard, I see them staying in this thing and covering the spread at home. I’ll take the Browns.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 4 points.