Chiefs vs. Broncos Week 18 Predictions & Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 1/5/25

When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 5

Where: Mile High Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: KC +11/Den -11

Money line: KC +425/Den -575

Total: 40

The Chiefs are already the guests of honor for the upcoming NFL postseason party; the Broncos would like to join them. That’s the situation heading into the regular-season finale for both teams Sunday afternoon at Mile High.

Kansas City just won three games in 11 days to clinch the top seed for the upcoming AFC playoffs. So, the Chiefs are very likely to sit many key players on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Denver needs a victory to secure its first playoff berth in almost a decade!

KC owns this rivalry as of late, but that might not matter Sunday.

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Denver at -10 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 39. Early betting action bumped both the Broncos to -11 and the total to 40.

From five days out, the forecast for Sunday in Denver looks nice, sunny, with temperatures in the 40s40’s.

Chiefs Betting Preview

Kansas City rides a six-game winning streak into Sunday after stuffing the Steelers in Pittsburgh last Wednesday 29-10. The Chiefs drove their first two possessions of the game to touchdowns and were never really in danger. KC allowed the Steelers to get within 16-10 in the third quarter but re-applied the accelerator and pulled away.

The stat sheet said the Chiefs only out-gained Pittsburgh 389-364, but it looked worse than that.

KC has now out-gained five of its last six opponents and hasn’t committed a turnover in its last six games!

Two games ago, the Chiefs beat AFC South champion Houston 27-19. Three games ago, they won 21-7 at Cleveland.

At 15-1 overall, Kansas City already owns the No. 1 seed for the AFC side of the playoffs. So the Chiefs are expected to rest many starters this Sunday, with QB Mahomes, TE Kelce, RB Pacheco, and DT Jones among them.

Kansas City also rested starters in Week 18 last year, locked into its playoff seeding, and still beat the Chargers. However, that Chargers team was just playing out the string and not trying to make the playoffs, like Denver is.

Broncos Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Broncos missed a chance to clinch a playoff spot last Sunday, falling at Cincinnati in overtime 30-24. In a game that played close throughout, Denver got a near-miracle touchdown on a 4th-down in the final seconds to force OT. But the Broncos lost when they came up empty on two overtime possessions, handing the ball back to the Bengals and QB Burrow, who eventually did them in.

The Broncos gave up 499 yards of Cincinnati’s offense.

So Denver’s been out-gained by each of its last five opponents.

Two games ago, the Broncos gave up a two-score, 3rd-quarter lead and lost to the Chargers 34-27.

At 9-7 overall, Denver clinches a playoff spot with a win Sunday. The Broncos can also get in if Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh Saturday night and Miami loses to the Jets Sunday, a game that will be played simultaneous to this one. But we assume Denver would prefer to take care of business itself.

On the personnel front Kansas City will probably play Carson Wentz at QB. And he’ll probably be in handcuffs, anyway.

Chiefs-Broncos Recent History

 
Kansas City absolutely owns this rivalry as of late, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings, including the first meeting between the teams this season back in November 16-14. However, Denver is 5-1 ATS over the last six meetings, keeping games close while catching points as the dog.
 
Also, most of that recent Chiefs dominance involved Mahomes. But our guess is he won’t be involved much Sunday.
 

Totals Report

• The Under is 9-7 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
• The Over is 11-5 in Broncos games, which are averaging 44 points.
• The Under is 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams, which averaged just 27 total points.

Free NFL Betting Pick

 
Motivation is the main factor for us when handicapping this game. Denver has it; Kansas City does not. The Broncos nearly beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead back in November – a blocked field goal right at the end cost ’em – but then won four in a row. And they had chances to win the last two weeks, too. Meanwhile, we’re trying to ascertain how KC will play this game. Our guess is very conservative, with a slew of 2nd-stringers. We’re giving the points with Denver.