Chiefs vs. Bills Divisional Playoff Round Point Spread Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs come to New York for a divisional playoff showdown with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It’s a familiar pairing between two conference rivals who have had some memorable postseason showdowns in recent seasons. Both teams were emphatic in their Wild Card playoff wins, with the Chiefs beating the Dolphins, 26-7, while the Bills beat the Steelers, 31-17, last week to get to this spot. In what looks to be another tough one to call on Sunday, who should we get behind in this high-stakes matchup?

Does Week 14 Tell Us Anything?

On December 10, the Bills went into Arrowhead, pinning a 20-17 win on the Chiefs. The game was memorable for a wild last-second TD play called back on an offsides call and Patrick Mahomes’ vitriolic response to a flag he felt shouldn’t have been thrown. I don’t think the game was really all that revealing in the sense that we already had a pretty good idea that these teams continue to be well-matched, where a competitive game can be forecasted more often than not. Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the best in the biz and one should anticipate a competitive affair on Sunday. It was a more-subdued game than what we have seen between these two teams in recent seasons, heightening the need to place more emphasis on things other than offense. It’s not easy, with that being a major theme, when these teams face off in this context.

Recent Form

It was less of an issue for the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs, who seemed content to just cruise this season, win their division, and then start turning up the heat. For the purposes of this game, I’d avoid holding what happened leading up to this spot too much against the Chiefs, as the regular season was somewhat uninspiring. We saw last week what happens when you start low-rating Kansas City at a time of the season when they are a proven commodity and start dialing things in more.

Being able to find another gear in the postseason with a quarterback in Mahomes who is 12-3 in the playoffs is great. But when the team on the other sideline is a longtime contender in the Bills that have been deprived of their glory for so long, they’re hard to discount—particularly when they get on a roll. For about two-thirds of the season, they were meandering and barely keeping their heads above water. The five straight wins to end the season and the win over the Steelers show them playing well against some really good teams. In other words, anyone betting on this game who is taking solace in some of the past tribulations of these teams could be in trouble. As it stands now, anyone betting on either of these teams should anticipate a higher-end version of that squad, regardless of how shaky it might have looked at points this season.

Issues for Buffalo

On one hand, we have seen a more-subdued Kansas City offense this season. They’ve relied more on their defense. Their main target, aging tight end Travis Kelce, has been relatively quiet. They can get big games from guys like WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco, but it’s not as explosive a group as they once were. At the same time, Buffalo’s defense was already dealing with issues before beating the Steelers last week, seeing other key defenders go down. This will bear watching leading up to game-time with their being so many players dropping out, but whereas the “next man up” philosophy may have worked well against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers, it could fall flatter against the Chiefs.

As we saw in the first game this season between these teams, it might not be the offensive back-and-forth we had become accustomed to when these teams play. Josh Allen had a pretty bad game in week 14. We may overfocus on the Chiefs new approach and how they rely less on big splashy plays, especially at the wide receiver position. But with down years from key Buffalo aerial talent like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (questionable), we see a different Buffalo offense, too. Some of it is positive, with Josh Allen taking a larger hand in things, running the ball more, and whatnot. Getting their backs involved aerially with good tight end play is not anything bad, nor is relying more on the run-game, which is a big part of their recent surge back to relevance. These are things they can put to good use against the Chiefs. But with the Chiefs “D” being a level better than it was when the Bills last saw the Chiefs in the playoffs, along with less effervescence overall from the Buffalo offense, can the Chiefs maybe make this the kind of game that better suits their style?

Take the Points

It’s a tough game to call. I think the state of the Buffalo defense needs to be hashed out before making any concrete decisions. But the idea of a compromised Bills’ defense being countered by an intact KC defense that could really be a factor in this game is daunting for the Bills. We are also looking at a game that has the potential to be the kind of nip-and-tuck affair where these points could come in handy. When a shootout was more in the cards, you’d tend to not value these points as much, but even 2.5 could go a long way if this is more of a grind in the NY January cold. I just see Mahomes and his big three weapons in Pacheco, Rice, and Kelce doing enough to make a real run at this or at least keep it close. I’m going with the Chiefs.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs plus 2.5 points.