Chiefs vs. Bills ATS Pick: Can the Chiefs Stay Undefeated?

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills in a battle of AFC heavyweights on Sunday. Kansas City enters this showdown at 9-0, on the heels of yet another close come-from-behind win on Sunday at home over the Broncos, 16-14. They look to keep it rolling this week in a tough road-test against an 8-2 Buffalo team that is really clicking, coming off their fifth win in a row in a 30-20 road-win at Indy. Will we see the Bills serve early notice on their claims of conference supremacy, or will their longtime tormentor again wind up on top? Let’s break it down!

Food for Thought

A certain amount of conditioning will lead some to think that this is a tough spot for the Chiefs. They’ve been on a long run of come-from-behind wins where things fell their way. And it’s not just coincidence, as the two-time defending Super Bowl winners have an innate way of steering games into their column. But you do get the feeling that their number is up, and who better to exploit that than the Bills at home? It’s not like the Chiefs don’t have any margin for error. A postseason top-seeding is important to them, and a loss here puts them close to relinquishing that, should they experience more speed bumps this regular season. But they still don’t strike you as a team striving for perfection. And despite victory being what it’s all about for them, not covering the spread in any of the last three weeks shows they’ve become a bit of a dicey value.

At the same time, playing the whole urgency game with the Chiefs can be tricky. It’s not like they turn it on and off at will. The Chiefs are in good shape standings-wise, but the conference is a bit top-heavy, so they can’t really take weeks off, especially against teams in that same realm. In addition, the Chiefs get a little good news on the personnel front this week with RB Isiah Pacheco back at practice and DE Charles Omenihu perhaps ready to make his first appearance of the season, as he could add a lot to the Chiefs’ pass-rush. The Bills, meanwhile, have ruled out WR Keon Coleman, while the statuses of WR Amari Cooper and TE Dalton Kincaid bear watching leading up to this game. With some other issues on the injury front, the Bills are dealing with a bit of issues in that area.

What the Bills Need to Do

The Buffalo defense is going to need to make this a tough matchup for Patrick Mahomes. They have the ability to do it with a strong pass rush and an opportunistic defense, but when Mahomes does make mistakes, they need to pounce on it. It’s not easy to poke holes in a 9-0 team, but this Kansas City offense can hit a snag when paired against good defenses that can be disruptive in the front-seven, while holding it together and making big plays in the secondary. The Bills can do this, and we got a look last week at how the Chiefs can struggle against defenses that have a lot going for them. But alas, they must bring this to bear on Sunday.

The Bills are going to need to find creative ways to put the legs of Josh Allen and James Cook to use, with opposing offenses typically finding it very hard to run against the Chiefs this season. With their aerial talent peppered with injuries, it makes that more of a concern leading into Sunday. In the Bills’ favor is the fact that they’ve gotten it done so many different ways this season, not really depending on any one or two guys. Still, the more viable aerial options you have against the Chiefs, the better, and if I were backing Buffalo this week, I’d prefer them not to be missing too many guys. Dawson Knox is a veteran tight end who can fill in if Kincaid is out or compromised, and they have different receivers who can produce in larger roles, but to be missing Coleman, Cooper, and Kincaid could all be a bit much.

X-Factors

While revenge themes and overly-emphasizing games in week 11 with two established forces in a conference can fail to capture what ends up transpiring on the field, there are some things that are hard to ignore. The Bills have experienced a lot of pain on this field as a result of the Chiefs, so the Bills do have an ax to grind in that sense. The stadium will be rocking, making for a difficult road spot for a Chiefs team that enters this game probably more battle-worn than a Bills team that has seen things going more their way in recent weeks. While one should hesitate in arbitrarily designating Week 11 in the regular season as a time when a team makes its biggest stand, you’d still tend to figure Buffalo has a little more of an edge heading into this game than the Chiefs.

Take the Small Home Favorite

This has elements of a trap where the case for Buffalo follows a storyline that seems a little too convenient for my taste. A Chiefs backer this week gets an unbeaten team getting points against an opponent with whom they have a proven track record. That’s not such a bad proposition. It’s just hard for me not to think this sets up well for the Bills to get this notch on their belt, as the real stuff is coming down the line, and if I’m going to take the Chiefs, it will be then. I see some good energy carrying the Bills to a win and cover at home on Sunday. I’ll take Buffalo.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 2 points.