Chiefs vs. 49ers Best Bets and Analysis – Super Bowl Rematch!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 7
Date/Time: Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. This is a rematch from last season’s Super Bowl. Kansas City comes into this game in a pretty optimal position—rested after the bye following a 5-0 start in their quest to three-peat this season. Things have gotten off to a more uneven start for the defending NFC champion 49ers, but a 36-24 win over Seattle last Thursday, in addition to some pieces filing back into the rotation, has them ready to attack the rest of the season. Who should we get behind this Sunday?

Good and Bad Spot for San Francisco

On one hand, the Chiefs have looked really good, winning all five of their games and only not covering once. They’re nice and rested, which is good for all the veteran talent on their sideline. But the 49ers are the ones with the axe to grind in this one, beyond just the obvious revenge narrative from the Super Bowl. They have some ground to make up at just 3-3 and can’t afford to be getting this deep into the season trying to get back on track, something they’d be dealing with if they fall to 3-4. They get this at home, and while not coming off the bye as the Chiefs are, they get the long week coming off a Thursday game.

While Deebo Samuel is back, the 49ers had some bad news with Jordan Mason leaving the game against Seattle. The return of Christian McCaffrey is still likely a bit down the road, and while Mason was seen at practice, we’ll see if he’s ready to go. You get the feeling they’re almost foolproof, as every back the Niners put in there seems to do well. At some point, though, and maybe we’ve already seen it, the price of having to dig deep into the RB-barrel will become too high. Still, the Niners’ defense, which should be less banged-up with some key guys getting closer to good health, will be dealing with a Chiefs’ team without Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice.

Can the Chiefs’ Offense Get Rolling on Sunday?

Maybe it’s futile now to question Kansas City after watching the Chiefs thrive in spots even with a piecemeal offense, but in tough spots like this, it’s worth addressing their issues on offense. Again, they’ve seen it work, but their “D” gets a lot of credit. Patrick Mahomes is still the best in the business, but the aerial attack is less-automatic with the aging pair of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce having led the way in the win against the Saints in their last game. Can veteran Kareem Hunt continue to deliver as their lead back? They always find answers and overcome issues. It’s still hard not to favor the San Francisco offense with their more proven and steady rotation of contributors.

Having been exploited both on the ground and through the air in certain spots, this is a time for the 49ers defense to start earning its money. I suspect things will start to come around, and they’re going to need it this week. It’s unlikely the Kansas City defense just starts coming apart all of a sudden and based on their current form, the 49ers can’t really expect an offensive bonanza this week. Their offense should be able to get some things done, make no mistake, but we haven’t seen offenses thrive against the Chiefs very often over the last two seasons. If the Niners look to notch the kind of win this week that can put some wind in their sails for the last ten games of the season, they’re going to need their defense to do more of the heavy lifting than they’ve been doing. With there being issues in the run-game and having just fought to get back to .500, the time for this defense to fully surface would be now.

Issues this Week for Kansas City

We all know that teams are trying to win every game. No player would even admit to himself that this week is less-important for some reason. But it can sometimes be more of an unconscious thing. The Chiefs are unbeaten with there really being no outward reason for urgency, other than wanting to come off the bye strong or to build up a buffer in case things get tough later in the season. The last time they played the Niners, the stakes were at their highest. And it might be the Chiefs who are further separated from that urgency this week, as opposed to a 49ers team that wants to start making their case this season.

A week one win over Baltimore gives the Chiefs’ 5-0 record some teeth. Subsequent wins are not as inspiring—a 26-25 win over a flat early-season Bengals team, a 22-17 win over Atlanta, a 17-10 win over the Chargers, and then putting up 26 against the Saints, who had really started bottoming out on the defensive side of the ball recently. Their defense has done well, albeit against some bad offenses or ones that weren’t really doing that well at the time the Chiefs played them. A road spot out of conference against a higher-end team with an axe to grind could present some different challenges this week.

Take the Home Team

Any injuries the Niners are dealing with on offense are more than offset by the personnel setbacks the Chiefs have incurred this season. I wonder if the main weapons the Chiefs used in their last win before the bye will have the same effect this week, with guys like Kareem Hunt and Smith-Schuster running over the Saints. I suspect a close game, as is the tendency when these two teams mesh, with the superior offensive firepower of an on-point 49ers’ team being enough to get them over the hump in a tight one from Levi’s Stadium. I’ll take the 49ers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 1 point.