Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders Pick 10/6/19

Chicago Bears (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

NFL Week 5

Date/Time: Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 1PM EST

Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England

TV: Fox

Point Spread: CHI -4.5/OAK +4.5 (BetAnySports)

Over/Under Total: 41

The Chicago Bears take on the Oakland Raiders, as the NFL goes abroad to London in week five action. After falling in week one, the Bears have won three in a row but lost starting QB Mitchell Trubisky for the time being. On Sunday, they scored a convincing win over the Vikings at Soldier Field, 16-6. The Raiders, meanwhile, scored an upset away from home with a 31-24 win over Indy. This is a more-daunting road-task, going across the pond to face a surging Bears team. For what it’s worth, the Bears are 1-0 lifetime in England, with Oakland is 1-1. Who can get the job done at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday?

Bears Better Off Without Trubisky?

It seems weird to say about a team’s starting quarterback, a former top pick who led his team to a 12-4 mark last season. But Trubisky has almost seemed like a hindrance on offense lately and had seen his play suffering. He won’t be out of action for long, but his backup Chase Daniel is a pretty capable guy and might even be more familiar with head coach Matt Nagy’s offense than Trubisky was, having worked together before in Kansas City. Still, with four starts and this being his 12th season, Daniel will be in a tough spot against an Oakland defense that can do damage in the right spots.

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Big Range for the Raiders

In only four games, we’ve seen an Oakland team all over the place. In week one, they looked capable beating the Broncos at home and covering the spread. Then the following week, they jumped out to a 10-0 lead against division kingpin Kansas City, before melting later in the game and not seeing the scoreboard for the rest of the game. At Minnesota, they were flat as can be, getting bounced out of a town with a dominant Vikings’ performance, so it had to be surprising for some to see the Raiders up on Indy midway through the first quarter, 14-0, as they kept the upper hand with a big win. Expect more this season from an imperfect team that is capable of both high ceilings and low valleys.

Raiders Looking to Grind it Out

Oakland was able to see a spurt on the offensive side of the ball on Sunday, but this might be a more difficult spot. Chicago’s defense has allowed a total of 45 points in four games, including giving up just 6 last week. Upfront, they stuff the run like few other teams, with Khalil Mack a disruptive force who might have an ax to grind facing his former team this week. The middle is fierce with Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd bringing the heat. And with Eddie Jackson, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Kyle Fuller, and others, they’re a secondary that can make some plays and play rigid overall defense. It’s one of the toughest defenses to score on, and the Raiders haven’t shined on offense much this season.

Derek Carr has been efficient with 72% completions, working with an aerial crew that is a bit thin. Tight end Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams are nice weapons, but fail to excite as featured pieces of an air-attack. Josh Jacobs continues to show good signs at running back in his rookie season, and they even got a 60 yard TD run from seldom-used receiver Trevor Davis on Sunday. Maybe Carr can eke out some progress on offense through the air and get just enough from Jacobs and his targets to stay in this game.

The Bears don’t figure to bring a ton of offense with Chase Daniels at QB. Or could that be a miscalculation? Though not viewed as such, Chicago’s backup situation isn’t bad at all, and though Daniel has been in this league a long time without shining, he ran the offense smoothly after coming in early against the Vikings, going 22-for-30 and throwing a TD pass to Tarik Cohen. With Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel (iffy for this week), Trey Burton, and Cohen, he has targets. With Cohen and rookie David Montgomery, they haven’t been running the ball very well. So just maybe, the Oakland defense can keep their team in this game.

Issues for Oakland

Oakland will enter this game a bit diminished. Entering the short week, they lost T Trent Brown to a hurt hand, and he is iffy, meaning they might lose another key piece up-front. That’s not the kind of news you need when you’re about to go play the Chicago Bears, who had six sacks against Minnesota last week. Even Carr hurt his leg in the previous game, and they seem a little banged-up. And losing egregious Vontaze Burfict to suspension deprives them of another guy who can make things happen. So while the Trubisky injury has gotten most of the attention, the Raiders may have worse personnel issues heading into this game.

Take the Bears

The London component just adds another layer of weirdness to a game that is already a bit strange. It’s a hard game to read. I can wholly understand the notion of a scrappy game where neither offense shines, which makes taking points appealing. Oakland might not deliver weekly, but they’ve shown enough to where you can predict they can hang in there with a Bears team that doesn’t figure to score a bunch. I just think the allowance in points made on account of the Chicago quarterback switch is a bit overstated and this should be more in the -7 range. I think the Bears are getting decent value here and I like them to win and cover the spread in England.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Chicago Bears minus 4.5 points. Make the Bears a +10.5 underdog by inserting them into a 15 point teaser (tied reduce!) at one of the web’s best betting sites: 5Dimes!