Chicago Bears vs. LA Chargers Against the Spread Play

Chicago Bears (2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, October 29, 8:20 PM EST

Where: SoFi Stadium

TV: NBC

by Keith Allen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Chi +8½ / LAC -8½

Moneyline: Chi +310 / LAC -415

Over/Under Total: 46½

The Chicago Bears head to the City of Angels to take on the Chargers to cap off the Sunday NFL action in week 8. The Bears are coming off a shocking victory with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent against the Raiders while the Chargers are coming off another loss to the Chiefs, and BOVADA.LV has made the Chargers 8½ favorites. Let’s take the points with the Bears to cover the big number. Here is the handicap.

Chicago’s Offense Can Be Efficient

After an abysmal first quarter of the season, the Bears’ offense is showing signs of being a functioning unit. They are averaging 28 points per game over the last 4 weeks, including 30 plus in victories against Washington and Vegas. During those 4 games, they have averaged 171 rushing yards and 209 passing yards, though they only averaged 132 passing yards over the last 2 games. The big story, of course, is Bagent, who took over for the injured Justin Fields in week 6, then led the team to the victory last week. You could say the D2 product didn’t do anything special last week, but it was what he didn’t do that had the biggest impact for Chicago. He didn’t turn the ball over. In the 6 games Fields started, the Bears had 2 or more turnovers in 5 of those games, the only game with no turnovers was the win against Washington. Bagent protected the ball and didn’t lose the game. The running game kept the 3rd downs manageable, and Bagent made enough plays for the team to convert 8 of 13 3rd downs. His longest passing play of the day was only 17 yards, but he showed he has sufficient arm strength to play at the NFL level. I understand the Raider defense doesn’t dominate anyone, but neither does the Charger defense.

The Charger defense gives up 2 more points per game than the Raiders and a full yard per play more than LV. They have the worst pass defense in the league based on yards per attempt and their run defense is middle of the pack. They have faced some top-level opponents, but they have also let the Titans and Raiders light up the scoreboard. They are very good at rushing the passer, which the Bears will have to deal with to stay in the game. I don’t expect the Bears roll over the Chargers this week, but I think their running game and quick passing game will be able to keep the chains moving. Chicago held the ball 34 minutes last week and were 3 for 3 in the red zone to close out long drives with touchdowns. Their running game got tough yards in the biggest moments, and I think we’ll see the same this week.

The Chargers Offense Misses Mike Williams

Justin Herbert is a gun-slinging QB with unlimited potential, but he has struggled since Williams was lost for the season in week 3. Since that game, LA has averaged only 19 points per game and they haven’t topped 219 passing yards in a game. Williams was the big target opposite of master route runner Keenan Allen, and his loss has thrust Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston into more prominent roles – but neither can match Williams’ ability to win contested catches. The running game has been hot and cold with Austin Ekeler being in and out of the lineup with an ankle issue. Ekeler is a top 3 dual-threat back in the NFL, and will be a big challenge for the Bears on Sunday – but he is at his most dangerous as a receiver. Chicago will have to shut him down and keep a lid on Allen to have a chance in this game.

The 2023 Bears defense won’t be mistaken for the ’85 Bears, but they have been playing well recently. They have only given up 17 points per game over their last 3 while taking the ball away 6 times in those contests. They held both the Raiders and Vikings under 235 total yards the last 2 weeks. Chicago allows the second fewest yards per carry on the ground, so they should be able to make the Chargers rely on the pass – which might not be the greatest thing. The Bears limited Davante Adams to 57 yards on 12 targets, but Brian Hoyer won’t be playing quarterback for the Chargers on Sunday. Chicago will have to keep Allen and Ekeler from wrecking the game and not let Palmer or Johnston get in a groove. I think the Bears’ defense continues to have modest success this week. The Charger offense hasn’t been as dynamic the past month, and I don’t think they get on track this week.

The Chargers Always Play Close Games

LA got beat by 14 last week in Arrowhead, the first time this year they have had a game decided by more than 8 points. Since last year, 9 of their 12 victories have come by less than a touchdown. The Chargers tend to shoot themselves in the foot when things are going well, either with a turnover, a bad penalty, or a dumb decision by coach Brandon Staley. Although this looks like a better spot for LA coming off the loss to division rival KC, they travel to New York next week to take on the Jets, so it wouldn’t be surprising for them to look past Chicago and not be their sharpest. Both of these teams have 2 wins and 2 covers on the year, so the number seems a little high. There is little home-field advantage, and LA is only 11-14 ATS under Staley as a favorite. With the Bears playing better, I think they can keep the game to within 1 score to cover the number.

Play The Bears on Sunday Night

Take the points and play the Bears and Tyson Bagent on Sunday Night.