Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Best Bet
Chicago Bears (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: Geha Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: Fox
Point Spread: CHI +13/KC -13 (BetUS – 100% bonus up to $300 w/code PREDICTEM)
Money Line: Chicago +525, Kansas City -800
Over/Under Total: 47
The Chicago Bears come to Arrowhead on Sunday for a Week 3 showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. Things haven’t gotten off to a great start for the Bears, suffering two clear losses in as many games, including their 27-17 loss on the road to Tampa on Sunday. They’re again on the road this week in a difficult cross-conference spot against the defending Super Bowl champions. After starting the year with a loss, the Chiefs at least partially righted the ship on Sunday with a 17-9 win over the Jaguars. Who can get it done for us on Sunday at Arrowhead?
Trouble for the KC Offense?
With 37 combined points in two games, the KC offense seems a bit out of sorts, and determining what is the cause of it could be key to this game. If it’s just a case of getting guys like Kelce back in the swings of things, that’s one thing. But with an inconsistent cast of receivers and backs, it seems like the formula isn’t as sure to fire as it once was. Not a ton has changed since they used a similar approach and cast to win the Super Bowl last season, so one should be hesitant before thinking there’s a problem.
It’s just a different route to points, and in this game, we might see a different approach, especially given the state of Chicago’s run defense. This could be a game where we see a lot of RB Isiah Pacheco, along with a dash of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. Of course, Mahomes will be looking for Travis Kelce, who should be better as he gets healthier with the passage of time. In other words, just because Mahomes can’t air it out to a cast of dependable and consistent receivers doesn’t mean there are no points out there for this KC offense going against a Bears’ defense that gave up 38 to Green Bay and 27 to Tampa to start the season. If the lack of clear weaponry is to hurt the KC offense this season, this would not appear to be one of those spots on the surface.
What Chicago Needs to Do
With 17 and 20 points scored in their first two games, they need better with a defense that isn’t going to hold a lot of teams to minimal point-totals. The run game needs to get better, something that might not come off great with Kansas City DT Chris Jones rejoining the fray and getting another week under his belt. We’ve yet to see Justin Fields breaking off the big runs, and last week, it almost seemed to be a concerted choice. They should turn him loose and lend some bite to an offense that really lacks fire.
The Bears need running backs like Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson to start putting forth some impactful runs. On paper, they have a nice little receiver crew. Still, it seldom seems to make a real impact between the inconsistency of Chase Claypool, waiting on DJ Moore to deliver, and the long spells of Darnell Mooney going invisible. And it’s not like turning Fields loose more last season really paid off with a 3-14 campaign, but at least they were sporadically dangerous. What we’ve seen through two games is really flat.
Will We See a Fired-Up Chiefs this Week?
A potential Chicago backer this week will likely look at this game and deduce this is where a Super Bowl Hangover can subtly manifest. The Chiefs have no ax to grind with the Bears, who are as off the KC radar as any team in the league. The only time Mahomes played the Bears was late in his rookie season in a lopsided win. They’re winless, coming off a 3-win season, and it’s one of those games where you can almost picture a Chiefs’ squad that isn’t exactly shot out of a cannon. But after dropping their first game, not falling to 1-2 is solid-enough motivation, and with Mahomes just getting a big contractual restructuring, maybe he has a little more wind in his sails than he typically would for a matchup along these lines.
It’s just that the spot itself doesn’t set up great for anything resembling a typical Chiefs’ offensive explosion. They’re not likely to be pushed by the Bears, and unless Fields is running rampant and connecting with his receivers and showing an edge we haven’t seen yet, this is a spot where we could see a more subdued version of the Chiefs, where they’re relying on their backs, with Mahomes and Kelce just doing enough to maintain the clear upper-hand. When laying nearly two touchdowns in a spot like this, you almost would prefer the 2021 Chiefs. And not that they’re better than this version of the Chiefs, but maybe they were better-geared to cover big spreads like this.
Take the Number on the Road Dogs
One would readily admit there’s nothing on the surface that really suggests the Bears are in a good spot. There is nothing special going on with either side of the ball. A team that will likely be playing from behind that runs the ball better than they throw it doesn’t bode well, either. I just don’t think it requires a negative view on the 2023 Chiefs to conclude perhaps that covering giant spreads like this may not be their forte. Something tells me Fields and Company come up with something and keep this one from getting too out of hand. I’ll take the Bears.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Chicago Bears plus 13 points.
