Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Point Spread Bet

Chicago Bears (4-12 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Sunday, January 5, 2025, at 1 PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: Fox

The Chicago Bears take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in NFC North action from Lambeau Field. The Packers are locked into a playoff spot, trying to improve their standing. The Bears stand in their way, losers of ten in a row after getting off to a 4-2 start to the season, which is now a distant memory. On Thursday, they lost to Seattle, 6-3, to fall to 4-12 on the season. The Packers, meanwhile, took a 27-25 loss to the Vikings on Sunday, as they now look to close the season strong before starting the playoffs.

Playoff Ramifications

Green Bay suffers from being in such a tough division, having a good season, but still third in the NFC North behind both Detroit and Minnesota. Four of their five losses this season were to those divisional teams, with another coming to Philadelphia, another NFC team ranked ahead of the Packers. There isn’t a ton that can be gained by the Packers in this one, with their range being a 6-seed or a 7-seed. If they win and the Commanders lose this weekend to the Cowboys, they will get the 6-seed. If those things don’t happen, they will be the 7-seed.

Food for Thought

With the Bears having nothing to play for and the Packers going for something, we have a little bit of a point spread to deal with this week. We also see that in week 11, the Packers went into Soldier Field, relying on a late-fourth-quarter TD run from Jordan Love to get the narrow 20-19 victory. A lot has happened since then, namely a slew of losses by the Bears that have them in a worse spot now than they were then. Still, the stakes for the Packers are a bit murky this week, and if they look up at halftime and see the Commanders pounding the Cowboys, how can we be sure what their approach will be with Packers backers needing to cover a big number?

How viable is a Bears team that has lost ten games in a row? We saw their defense at least play well last Thursday, holding the Seahawks to two field goals on the night. They will need more of that this week, as the Chicago defense we saw leading up to that last game had been getting torn apart in spots. It’s just that for all their woes, they can jump up on a given week, granted those sightings are becoming more infrequent lately. Still, they came within a point of Green Bay before, lost in OT to the Vikings, before falling to Detroit by three in that same stretch. Divisionally, they can sometimes still hold their own.

Motivation

While an overrated factor for much of the regular season, it can be more of a guiding light in the final week of the year. The Bears have long been out of it. Their spoiler role here is pretty unfulfilling, being that if the Commanders win, it doesn’t even matter what happens here. And with ten losses in a row heading into this, how capable are they any way of providing that kind of enthusiasm? Not that they’re not trying, but a team like that is not very likely to spring up on the last week of the season with something special after the run they’ve been on. Chicago more strikes one as a team that will be welcoming the finish line to the season, get a new coach, and give it another go next season. That’s a pretty disparate headspace from a team with a playoff future trying to get into a better spot.

While some might be concerned if Green Bay will be shot out of a cannon for this one, I think the greater concern might exist on the other sideline. Granted, the Packers will be on the road to start this postseason either way this goes. What they need to have happen doesn’t seem all that likely. I’d also anticipate they much prefer not to enter the postseason on the road, having just ended the regular season on a losing slide. Something tells me coach Matt LaFleur will angle to avoid having all that stink in the locker room leading up to the playoffs. And what if they are flat? Does that mean a Bears team that can sink to abysmal depths will be able to pounce?

Concerns

The thing is, Chicago has some pieces that might eventually work out on some level. The first time around, QB Caleb Williams was pretty accurate and ran the ball well against the Packers, getting some good rushing work from D’Andre Swift, as well. Green Bay was able to clamp down in some key spots defensively, which made it end up looking like not that great of a day. But even in the midst of this swoon, there are flashes of what a more-ideal version of the Bears could do, and you sometimes see it play out on both sides of the ball. But on offense, with Williams working with a decent cast of weapons, the Bears can be sporadically dangerous.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

A close loss last week to a really good Minnesota team doesn’t undo what led up to that, where the Packers had won five out of six games. I’d look for LaFleur to look to get that good momentum back, not only for this 6/7 seed business but to be in a good position to strike in the postseason, where they’re going to have to take to the road against a good team. I think the Bears are not the easiest team to go against in this spot, at least harder than their ten-game losing streak would suggest. At any rate, I see the Packers creating some separation here and doing enough to keep the Bears at arm’s length as they get the win and cover this week at Lambeau.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 9.5 points.