Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Betting Preview & Spread Pick 11/16/23

Chicago Bears (3-7 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) at Detroit Lions (7-2, 7-2), 11/19/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 19

Where: Ford Field

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Chi +9.5/Det -9.5
Money line: Da Bears +310/Motor City -390
Total: 46.5

Most Bears-Lions games draw little interest outside the realm of the NFC North, but Sunday’s game at Ford Field might be an exception. Detroit looked unstoppable last week against the Chargers, at least offensively, while Chicago is showing it was better than that poor start to this season.

This is actually a game we want to watch; maybe we can make a little cash along the way.

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NFL Betting Lines

The Week 11 NFL betting market opened Detroit as a 10-point favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then shaved that spread down to 9.5.

Bears-Lions NFL Betting Preview

Chicago just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 16-13 win over Carolina last Thursday. The Bears spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game on a long punt return for a score and trailed 10-9 at the half. Chicago then took the lead for good with a touchdown midway through the third quarter and held on from there.

The line on that game sat at Chicago -3 most of last week, but those who bet the Bears late lost at -3.5.

Chicago out-gained Carolina 295-213 and out-rushed the Panthers 133-43. So the Bears have now out-gained six of their last seven opponents and out-rushed each of their last seven foes.

It’s the turnovers that’ve been killing Chicago, ten total in recent losses to the Vikings, Chargers, and Saints. Last week, they committed zero.

The Bears are also now 2-2, both SU and ATS, with Tyson Bagent as the starting QB. As of this writing, starter Justin Fields was still listed as questionable for Sunday.

At 3-7 overall, Chicago trails 6-4 Minnesota by three games in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings. So … not dead, but close.

Meanwhile, Detroit continued its roll through the AFC West this season with a 41-38 victory at the Chargers last Sunday. The Lions led that game 24-17 at the half, then answered every Los Angeles challenge with a score of its own. With the game tied at 38-38 late, Detroit drove 53 yards into FG range, ran out most of the clock, then kicked a game-winner at the buzzer.

The Lions racked up 533 yards of total offense, including 200 on the ground. However, the defense gave up 421 yards of Chargers offense and allowed touchdowns the last five times it took the field.

Still, Detroit has now out-gained eight of its nine opponents this season.

The Lions have also rushed for at least 200 yards three times this year, all victories.

At 7-2 overall Detroit leads the NFC North by a game and a half over the second-place Vikings.

Bears-Lions Recent History

Detroit owns the edge in the recent rivalry with Chicago, winning three of the last five meetings SU, going 4-1 ATS. Last year, the Lions swept the two games from the Bears by scores of 31-30 and 41-10.

Both those games matched quarterback Jared Goff against Fields.

NFL Betting Trends

Through Week 10, rookie quarterbacks are 14-22 SU, 14-19-3 ATS this season.

Totals Report

The Overs are 6-4 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.

The Overs are 5-4 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 49 points.

Through Week 10, the Unders are 89-61 (59 percent) in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit gets our handicapping check-mark in the QB comparison, but from there, everything looks fairly close, from the running games to the defense to the run defense. And when we add all that up, 9.5 points seems too much. Also, seven of the last nine meetings between these teams were decided by seven points or less. It’s not easy going against such a hot offense, but we think Chicago can keep this one close, too. We’re betting on the Bears plus the points on Sunday.