Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Preseason Prediction: Key Insights for Today’s Game

A Bear Beats a Buffalo in a Fight, Right?

It’s just like they say when you’re taking a test in school – always stick with your first answer. Never change it.
In yesterday’s article, I did a big write-up on the Houston Texans, with my mind on a play on their team total over, based on the average points scored, 23 PPG, found in a 5-year look back at teams playing the second game of the preseason after being in the Hall of Fame game. But by the time I finished the write-up I changed my mind and went with a CFL game instead.

Houston scored 20 points, covering the 19′ by a hook. They should have landed right on that 23 PPG average, but they missed a field goal in the fourth quarter.

Today, Chicago’s in the same situation as Houston was last night, and though I’m in that Johnny-Come-Lately spot that I’ve described in previous articles, I’m taking them anyway. (This is the spot I try to avoid, where I lay off a play that wins but then jump on it the next day. Silly stupidstitions. Or maybe not so silly and stupid as I’m 0-2 the last two times I went against this superstition, in July WNBA games.)

There aren’t a lot of stats you can use in preseason games, but here are a few stats and reasons that make me like today’s play, taking the Bears team total Over 17′.

1. – As mentioned above, teams in game two after playing the Hall of Fame average 23 PPG.
2. Houston didn’t get to 23 last night, but they did score 20, which would cover tonight’s number.
3. – Chicago scored 21 in last week’s preseason game, which would cover tonight’s number.
4. – Last year’s preseason under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus saw the Bears score 23, 17, 21 points. Two of three would cover tonight’s number, the third narrowly missing.
5. – Two years back, in his first season as head coach, Eberflus’s Chicago Bears scored 19, 27, 21. All three would cover tonight’s number.
6. – The numbers above show that Eberflus and the Bears have scored more than 18 points in six of the seven preseason games where he’s been the coach. The seventh game fell short by half of a point.
7. – The Bears have won five of their seven preseason games under Eberflus, which would indicate that he’s at least trying to win in the preseason.
8. – The Buffalo Bills opponents scored 19, 27, and 21 points in their three preseason games last year. All three would cover tonight’s number.

That’s seven reasons, plenty enough for me to take the Bears tonight. When I began this write-up earlier this morning, the Bears were at 18′. When I went to bet it right before submitting this article, they were down to 17′. I guess somebody likes the Under, but not me.

Today’s play: Chicago team total over 17′, -118

Recap: 0-1
Record: (August): 2-1

Review: Calgary held Toronto to just seven points in the first half and took an 8-7 lead into the locker room. They scored first in the second half and were up 15-7 when they suffered a total collapse. Their special teams gave up a TD on a punt, and then the quarterback threw a pick 6, and the game was pretty much over. CFL now at 2-2. Hope to have another play for tomorrow.