Chargers vs. Titans Point Spread – Free Pick ATS

Los Angeles Chargers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Week 2 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1PM EDT
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: CBS

Point Spread: LAC -3.5/TEN +3.5 (Bovada)
Money Line: Los Angeles -180, Tennessee +155
Over/Under Total: 45.5

The Los Angeles Chargers come to Nashville for a pivotal week two AFC showdown with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Neither team was able to get a win in week one, each the recipient of painfully close losses. The Chargers saw Tyreek Hill put a cap on a huge day with a late TD that was the dagger on Sunday in a 36-34 loss. Tennessee, meanwhile, couldn’t get in the end zone, settling for five field goals against the Saints in a 16-15 loss. It’s going to be a tough game for each, where what each team has and doesn’t have should pair for an appealing game that might have more than its fair share of scoring. Who can get it done for us at Nissan Stadium on Sunday?

The More Compelling Matchup Concerns

This is one of those game breakdowns that gives way to a “yeah, but…” style of analysis, as each point seems to have an equally-interesting counter to it. We see a Chargers’ defense, for example, opening the season in ragged form, chewed up by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. But is Tennessee a prime candidate to do much about it on the heels of not getting in the end zone against New Orleans? You also have a Titans’ defense that held its own better than expected against a Saints’ offense that has some good weapons. Still, Derek Carr working himself into a new offense in New Orleans bears little resemblance to what the Chargers can do when they open things up offensively. The main takeaway from this is that while maybe there are clues and hints available in each team’s week one showing, taking it too much to heart could lead us astray.

I think Tennessee still faces ample matchup concerns with the Chargers’ aerial attack under Justin Herbert. Keenan Allen is a dependable weapon, and you figure Mike Williams will come to life sooner than later, with RB Austin Ekeler and others chipping in along the way. They might not be able to manufacture the same kind of standardized run-game that they were able to do against Miami, with Tennessee pretty tough up front on defense. But we’ve seen the Chargers thrive on offense without that before, using the variety of their air-game to adequately quell opposing defenses. Anything can occur in a one-week window, but it’s hard to imagine the Chargers and Herbert not getting it done through the air this week.

That brings us to a Chargers’ defense that might not ever make up the apparent ground between their talent and results. We see other defenses in the league with far less star power routinely surpassing the Chargers in terms of defensive play. Again, week one is just a one-game window, and that Miami offense is most likely going to make a lot of defenses look shabby this season. The fact is that this Chargers’ defense can be gotten to, and if the Titans are able to get something clicking offensively, we’ll better see if week one was just a false alarm for this Bolts’ defense.

Main Issues with the Titans

It’s clear that this Tennessee offense is not really on its way up, so to speak. There is some overall promise with guys like rookie Tyjae Spears, young TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, and WR Treylon Burks, but overall, there might not be a true difference-maker in that lot. That leaves the Titans with the diminished Ryan Tannehill and a still potentially-impactful Derrick Henry, where you can’t help but think the bulk of his best work is in the rearview. The percentage of clunkers delivered by Tannehill the last few seasons is on the rise, and while the Saints’ defense can make some things happen at home, not getting in the end zone in week one is a damning indictment. You just generally don’t like to see offenses where their major pieces are aging, protected by one of the worst offensive lines in the league. A few years ago, when the Titans were contending, this was an area of strength. Now, when facing defenses, even underachieving ones like the Chargers’ who can still rush the passer, it becomes a major sticking-point.

The Tennessee defense can thrive in certain situations, particularly with teams that run the ball more. And not that it’s not a part of the Chargers’ typical offensive outlook, but in their best offensive showings of the last few years, a lot of them don’t have big rushing stat-lines. Ekeler can get you a multitude of different ways, not relying on standard runs. Herbert brings a lot of different guys into the aerial mix—backs, tight ends, and receivers who specialize in different things all over the field. And against a Tennessee secondary that, while still having some big-play ability, has become exceedingly porous the last season or two, that looms as something that might be difficult for the Titans to overcome.

Take the Road Favorite

To be frank, a situation where the Titans kick it into gear with better games from Tannehill and a few more big runs from Henry isn’t all that hard to picture, in which case the Titans could make a strong run at this spread or even the win. We all know too well of how hard it can be for the Chargers to translate what’s on paper to what’s on the field. Even so, I see the Chargers’ defensive front having some success against this Titans’ offensive line, getting to Tannehill and giving an already iffy Tennessee offense more problems they may not be able to overcome. Meanwhile, the Chargers passing game should be able to get enough out of this matchup to create a little margin, get the win, and cover the spread on the road. I’ll take the Chargers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3.5 points.