Chargers vs Texans Wild Card: Picks & Betting Advice

LA Chargers at Houston Texans
Analysis and Pick
Saturday, January 2011, 12:30 PST

It’s playoff time and who DOESN’T want action on the first game of the postseason. There’s no question mark at the end of that sentence because it’s a rhetorical question – EVERYBODY wants action on the game.
With a negative balance on my 2024 NFL play, I really shouldn’t bet just because I want action. But I got lucky, the first game fits one of my handicapping systems.
In fact, it fits my best system.
Yep, despite a short schedule of only six games, I lucked out – I have a Stupid Asterisk Play. And it’s on the opening game, Chargers at Texans.

This play continues to generate a profit across all sports. (Be sure to check the PredictEm forum section everyday. I shared an NBA asterisk play there on New Orleans on January 5th. They were -4 and won by 12. The play was 3-6 going into the pick, now 3-7 after Washington lost, making it a 70% fade in the NBA this season.)

In the NFL this year, The Asterisk Play is 3-11, a 78% Fade. The subset where I break it down into Hm/Rd is Hm 3-10, a 76% Fade, Rd 0 -1. Houston is at home this week so I get the stronger play due to the larger size data sample.

Reminder – what works in the regular season doesn’t necessarily work in the postseason. I didn’t come up with a formula for the asterisk play until March of 2024, so I don’t have any NFL playoff data from last year to factor into this game.
But I do have NBA data.
During the regular season, the asterisk play was 3-7, with a 70% fade.
Postseason, I only had two plays, but true to form, it went 0-2, Hm 0-1, Rd 0 – 1.
Hopefully, form will hold again this week in the NFL.

This line opened at LAC -2′, and books are divided right now (Tuesday morning) between that number and -3. Taking the Chargers means I’m using a Rd Fav, so let’s take a look at Rd Favs in the Wild Card round in recent years.

Last year Cleveland was a -2 Rd Fav and they got their butts kicked, 45-14. Not a good stat if you’re looking for success for Wild Card Rd Favs.
But it gets worse – the home dog that whupped them – Houston.
Clearly head coach Ryans had his team prepared, and the moment wasn’t too big for QB Stroud who went 16 /21, 274 yards, 3 TD’s, no INT’s.
Ugh and uh-oh.
And it gets worse still.
The only other Wild Card Rd Fav was the Philadelphia Eagles who got beaten almost as bad as the Browns, losing to Tampa Bay 32-9.
Rd Favs 0-2.

Let’s go back one more year and see what we see.
Two years ago, Jacksonville was a Hm Dog in the Wild Card round, and they won 31-30.
And, again, it gets worse.
The team they beat, the Rd Fav – the Chargers, the team I’m playing this week.
Finally, a little good news for Wild Card Rd Favs: Dallas was a -2′ Rd Fav and beat Tampa Bay 31-14.

Three years ago there were no Rd Favs. So a three-year look back shows Rd Favs at 1-3. Not a good record but it’s a small data sample.

How about a look at the Chargers as Rd Favs and Houston as Hm Dogs this season?

I have the Chargers at 5-1 as Rd Favs, with wins over Carolina, Denver, Cleveland, New England, and Las Vegas. I’m starting to like my bet a little better now (I’d like it even more if there was more than just one playoff team in that bunch instead of four teams with losing records.)
Houston was a +4 Dog to Detroit and covered the spread, losing 26-23.
They were a +6′ Dog against Baltimore on Christmas Day and lost 31-2.

Head to Head, they’ve faced each other three times in the past three years, Houston winning two of them, but I don’t give much weight to that in my handicapping of this game due to the difference in head coach this season at Houston.

Houston is 5-3 SU at home, the Chargers are 6-3 SU on the road.

Looking at basic stats, you’d be hard-pressed to find two teams that are more evenly matched.
The Chargers score 23 PPG, Houston 22.
Chargers passing yards per game are 206, Houston’s 209.
Rushing yards per game: Chargers 109, Houston 106.
Time of possession they’re both at 30 minutes per game.

Same on defense, pretty much equal.
Charger’s rushing yards were 122, Houston’s 115.
Chargers give up 205 yards in the air, Houston 199.
On points surrendered we start to see a little differential with the Chargers giving up just 17.5 PPG, Houston 22.3.

So with two evenly matched teams why do we have a Rd Fav?
Injuries?
Houston will be without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, which means Harbaugh can game plan around stopping Nico Collins in the passing game and Joe Mixon on the ground.
Los Angeles has WR Palmer, LB Perryman, and RB Edwards as questionable but likely to play.
And if Edwards is out, JK Dobbins has been doing a decent job in his absence.

The Chargers were 12-5 ATS this season, best in the NFL.
Texas was 1-5 ATS as Dogs.

For me, none of the above stats matter though. When it comes to my bets I stick with what works and nothing has worked better for me this year than the Asterisk Play. With limited games on the remaining NFL schedule, I probably won’t get another one. Riding it one more time.

When to Buy Recommendation
I can get the -2′ and only have to pay an extra four cents in juice, so that’s what I’ll do in case LAC wins by a field goal in what could be a close game.

This week’s play:
LAC – 2′, -114

Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-16.65
Review:
THREE turnovers by Tyler Huntley in the first half alone (including one in the red zone and another in field goal range) sunk any chance of me winning with Miami.
The loss actually saved me a unit as I was looking at taking Minnesota in the night game at Detroit. Coming off a loss with Miami, Minnesota felt like a chase.
NEVER chase losses.
Recognize if it’s not going to be your day, and don’t press your bets.

I came into the NFL regular season with three units banked from the preseason, so I’m at 16-16.5, putting me in the red just under two units going into the postseason.