Chargers vs. Packers: Point Spread Analysis & Pick for Week 11

The Los Angeles Chargers come to Lambeau Field for a Sunday matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Both teams could really use a win. The Chargers gave it a good go on Sunday, but fell to the Lions, 41-38, in a tough loss that dropped them below .500. The Packers also dropped a close one on Sunday, taking a 23-19 road-loss to the Steelers. Back at home this week, they look to reverse this slide of five losses in their last six after a 2-1 start. It’s a tricky matchup between teams where it’s hard to even recall past matchups. Let’s break it down.

Not an Easy Spot for the Bolts

Last week’s loss to the Lions didn’t help their cause, but putting up 38 in that spot at least suggests an offense in working order. That alone makes them an appealing choice against a Packers team that has not surpassed 20 points in scoring since week two. With 12 turnovers, Green Bay QB Jordan Love has become more mistake-prone, in addition to just not being very productive. Last week saw him being pretty good through the air, with Pittsburgh clamping down late to poke ahead for the win. Therein lies another issue with a Green Bay team that has come out on the short end of some tight games lately.

That being said, we’re getting to the part of the season where a game at Lambeau can be tricky for a Southern California-based team. I don’t know about this week, but we’re getting to that point. The Chargers aren’t 4-5 by accident. The offense is missing pieces and underachieving. They will give you glimpses like last week, before lapsing back into a more-subdued version. It has been better lately, but it has been an infrequent sight this season to see the Chargers’ offense taking over for the big win. Then you also have a Chargers’ defense that almost never plays up to the standards its individual parts would suggest. Put this team in a foreign locale such as Lambeau, which the bulk of the roster has not seen, give the home team better than a FG, and it even offers opportunities for a suffering Packers’ team.

Challenges for Green Bay

This Packers team is a proud franchise with some good pros on the roster and coaches on this staff, but the notion that this isn’t really working out for 2023 is cementing with each passing week. They gave it a good go last week, but with them unable to muster the urgency when things were still attainable doesn’t speak well of what might ensue now that hopelessness is setting in. And not that the Chargers aren’t experiencing similar things, but with two wins leading into a tough loss to a good Lions’ team, they give the vibe of a team still thinking they can work things out this season. A win here gets them to .500, while a .500 mark seems like a mountain to climb for Green Bay.

We sometimes see a Green Bay team holding it together defensively OK, but with their last series of games coming against the Raiders, Broncos, Vikings, Rams, and Steelers, they’ve either been playing bad offenses or ones that were compromised when they played Green Bay. This week the Packers are dealing with an offense showing better form and capable of a big spike-week. Compare those opponents to who the Chargers have been facing with the Lions last week, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, the Dolphins, maybe they’ve been made to look worse than really are from a stoutness perspective.

Tough Obstacles for the Packers on Sunday

Again, even against so-so offensive units, this Chargers’ defense can allow points. But we see Jordan Love making a lot of mistakes behind a line that isn’t getting better over the course of the season. While not ruling out productivity from this underrated receiving crew or guys like RB Aaron Jones, the Chargers’ defense represents an iffy matchup for Packers’ backers this week. They can get after the quarterback in a big way, force mistakes, and capitalize. They might not be as good overall as they should be. Last week showed that they share the same affliction the Green Bay defense does in sort of melting when the chips are in the middle of the table with everything on the line.

One can understand the notion of a Chargers’ team that is dealing with some overall team dysfunction and a general underachieving vibe coming out to Lambeau and laying an egg. But an actual proactive stance on the Packers based on something they do well is not easy to do in this spot. We could see a more complete version of some of the good aerial production we saw at times last week. A defense doing well against lesser offenses could see that translate in this spot. But if not, how sure are we Green Bay can put up a decent number? Is this pass-rush not really what Love wants to see as he tries desperately to regain his bearings?

Lay the Number on the Road Dog

Any hesitancy one has backing the Chargers on the road laying points is well-placed. They are all over the place, aren’t very clutch, and they disappoint more often than they deliver. That’s not a combination of traits you want in this spot—that much has to be granted. But you take a legit NFL quarterback like Justin Herbert, real difference-makers on offense like Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, along with a playmaking defense boasting big-time talent and better overall form, and it just might be enough in this case. I’ll take the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3.5 points. Bankroll hurting? Fix that issue by grabbing a massive 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $500 by signing up at Everygame through this special link, making your deposit and then going directly to their Special Offers page and entering bonus code PREDICTEM. They’ll match your deposit with a 100% REAL CASH bonus! This isn’t a crappy match play/free play like most books offer! A sweet offer from the oldest sportsbook on the web! (Online since the 90’s!)