Chargers vs. Falcons: NFL Week 13 Point Spread Prediction

Los Angeles Chargers (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers come into Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday for a week 13 showdown with the Atlanta Falcons. It’s a big game for the Falcons, who started the season at 6-3, with two straight losses threatening to undo the good work they’ve done. They got last week off, hopefully chastening themselves for the final six games of the season. They catch a 7-4 Chargers team that is coming off a MNF loss to the Ravens, 30-23, as they also look to get back into the swing of things this week in a tough road-spot in Atlanta. Let’s break this one down!

Tough Spot for the Bolts?

From a few different standpoints, this isn’t the cushiest spot for the Chargers. After a draining MNF game, they enter this game on a Thanksgiving short-week, while their opponents have been dug in at home awaiting this game with extra time to prepare with the bye-week. There might be a rest differential at play this week. After a prolonged homestand, the Chargers now take to the road in a bit of a foreign locale, with AFC West teams not often playing in NFC South stadiums. So at the very least, the Chargers will be less-rested than their opponents, while playing in a spot out of their wheelhouse.

After a good start, the Falcons ran into some rough patches before the bye-week. Taking a loss to the Saints was a bad development, and while there is no shame in the Falcons losing to the Broncos at Mile High, to go into the bye-week on the heels of a wipeout 38-6 hammering by Denver was a rough way to enter the break. But with some aging and dinged-up members of this team, the time off may come in handy, with the Falcons recharged and ready to attack these upcoming spots. And in Atlanta’s last game, we saw what the Falcons are hoping persists this week, but just in their favor—how it’s not as easy as it looks to come into these foreign locales against teams with which you have no real connection.

Holes in the Chargers’ Defense?

While we suspected that the low point-totals allowed by the Chargers through their first 8-9 games could partially be a result of the lower-caliber offenses they faced. And while the last two weeks don’t undo all the good work they did, it does make you wonder. In allowing a combined 64 points to the Falcons and Bengals, it’s not really the same group we saw against the teams they had been playing. A rested home Falcons team with a recharged Kirk Cousins, with Bijan Robinson having gotten into better form, and a nice pass-catching crew led by Drake London, the Falcons are going to be one of the better offensive units the Chargers have seen this season. If we continue seeing disparate results from when the Chargers face struggling offenses and more functional ones, it doesn’t shake out so badly for the Falcons from a matchup perspective, perhaps.

Still, if the Chargers are going to make a run this season, they’re going to have to find some answers on defense. At the very least, they need to see some of the fire that is evident against lesser offenses show up against better offenses. Things were looking good, like maybe Harbaugh and his staff were able to start extracting some better results out of a talented defense that just never quite congealed properly. I’m not sure two uneven performances against a desperate pair of teams in the Ravens and Bengals changes things, but I’d be looking for the Chargers to really be gunning this week to restore order on this side of the ball.

Offensive Disparity?

Just as the Chargers are hoping their defense resurfaces this week, the Falcons are desperate to rediscover their footing on offense after scoring a combined 23 points in their two games leading up to the bye-week. With the Chargers coming into town, this is a chance to make certain offensive advantages register for the Falcons. After a nice start to the season, running the ball hasn’t been easy for the Chargers, with Atlanta countering with Robinson, who might show us something in these final six games of the season. Between the work of Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, and TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta seems to have an edge in the pass-catching department. The Chargers receiving crew could come around, but in many ways, the Falcons are aerially what the Chargers would like to become one day. You might even be able to say that about their run game.

On MNF, we saw Chargers’ running back JK Dobbins go down with a knee injury. As of press time, that’s still a pretty fresh development, but just from how it looked, I’m not sure he can be counted on to appear this Sunday. And for a Harbaugh-coached team where defense and running are a big part of the equation, that’s not a small loss should that be the case. To be left with Gus Edwards and whoever’s left to pick up the slack isn’t a very appetizing equation for prospective Chargers’ backers this week.

Take the Small Home Dog

It’s a desperate spot for two teams who are still in the mix while being threatened by some recent bad results. I sense that with the break, the home-spot, and the Falcons being more intact personnel-wise, Atlanta is in a slightly better position to emerge from the funk this week. Between their issues on offense and a defense that appears to be waning in the heat of increased opposition, the Chargers might not find this road spot to their liking, and with the Falcons even getting a buffer, albeit a tiny one, I think they’re the better choice this week. I’ll take the Falcons.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Atlanta Falcons plus 1.5 points.