Chargers vs. Chiefs Predictions & Picks | NFL Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs come to SoFi Stadium on Sunday to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West battle. So far, it’s been relatively smooth sailing for the Chiefs, 3-0 on their quest to three-peat. On Sunday Night Football, they withstood a tough challenge by the Falcons, winning on the road, 22-17. They are again on the road in this divisional battle on Sunday, taking on a Chargers’ team that failed to make this a battle of unbeatens this week, losing to the Steelers on Sunday, 20-10. Can they get back on the winning track, or will their longtime division tormentors get the better of them again?

Injuries

The presence of Justin Herbert for the Chargers is a key element of this game. That’s especially true with the drop-off to Taylor Heinicke, perhaps not the worst backup in the world, but not a guy you’d picture thriving in this tough spot. Already compromised last week, Herbert hurt his ankle and it’s almost like the line we see with the Chargers getting better than a TD at home, they’re assuming he won’t be in there this week. And even if he somehow is, we’ve already seen the diminished returns of a gimpy Herbert, making one wonder what we can count on from an offense that is already flooded with a ton of new pieces this season. Making it worse is starting tackles Rayshawn Slater and Joe Alt could also both be out, along with Joey Bosa and Derwin James, who will be suspended for this game. That’s a daunting list of personnel issues. The Chiefs, meanwhile, aren’t dealing with a ton on the injury front, with WR Xavier Worthy a little banged-up and still dealing with the aftermath of Isiah Pacheco having gone to IR.

Being Too Hard on the Chargers?

On one hand, maybe not a ton of accolades were deserved by the Chargers following two clearcut wins over the Raiders and Panthers to open the season. And while the status of Herbert, the offensive line, and starting to see star defensive talent fall off is concerning, they are still 2-1 in Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL sideline. We have seen these narratives play out in recent years and often miss the mark, with last week’s Rams’ win over the Niners coming to mind. It can look almost too easy when a team hits a rough patch on the injury front. Sometimes, we backlash ourselves into an unrealistic position, and maybe we’d be doing that this week to assume the 3-0 two-time defending Super Bowl Champions are going to absolutely clobber what looks to be a Chargers’ team on its heels.

Maybe that’s what could be expected of the old Chargers. I look for Harbaugh to be a big help navigating the Bolts through this rough patch. This might not be the same Chargers team that once you get them down, they stay down. After a strenuous early-season road stretch, the Chargers return home, and while their home-field advantage isn’t very strong in terms of fan base, it should help. And Kansas City is being run a little ragged with the SNF game in Atlanta followed by this road-trip. Even if Herbert is in, but especially if he’s not, is this a decent potential letdown spot for the Chiefs? And while the Chiefs have been in some tough spots, which gives their 3-0 mark some teeth, their total winning margin in those trio of games is a mere 13 points.

Food for Thought

We’ve seen some regular-season apathy from the Chiefs during their run over recent seasons. They enter this spot at 3-0, and urgency might be low. Sure, it’s still young in the season, and going on a roll gives them some slack they might need later. Also, it’s their divisional opener, so maybe trying to catch the Chiefs sleeping in this spot isn’t the most realistic angle. But especially if Herbert is out, this might be a week where the Chiefs are operating with something less than a razor’s edge. Or maybe it just resonates into a spot where the Chiefs’ defense does most of the heavy lifting against the Chargers playing a backup, and we get a 19-14 type of game.

If it is in fact Heinicke behind center for the Bolts this weekend, it’s not terribly exciting, but it should be better than Easton Stick, who could still make an appearance. Heinicke has been good enough to make five different NFL teams, starting for what will be his fourth different team this Sunday if he goes. And while a composite view of his work fails to inspire, he can be useful in short windows and has shined in some games in his career. And with JK Dobbins having shown his worth this season, maybe they get him going while Heinicke pokes and prods without making many mistakes, enough to hang around in this game with a shot at the end.

Take the Points on the Home Dog

The Chiefs are where they want to be and aren’t preoccupied with the things that bother other teams. Just as long as they win and position themselves for a postseason run, they’re fine. But maybe that leaves some ATS angles along the way where they can be attacked in weeks where it’s hard to forecast a fire raging in their bellies. I look for Harbaugh to have the Chargers fired up in his first divisional game against the AFC West kingpins, as the Bolts hang in there and make a run at this spread. I’ll take the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers plus 8 points.