Chargers vs. Browns Pick & Predictions | NFL Week 9

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

Where: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
When: Sunday, November 3, at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS

Betting Odds

Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -1.0
Over/Under: 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers and the Cleveland Browns are both coming off wins in Week 8 and will take the field this Sunday to see who can keep their modest win streak alive. There are a lot of similarities in the play style of both of these teams, and based off of the current betting line, this one looks like a highly competitive matchup that will come down to the wire. There have been some growing pains for both the Browns and the Chargers during the 2024 season, but there have also been some recent high-level performances for each to build on. Between coaching changes, injuries, and roster shake-ups, many key factors will determine the outcome of this Sunday’s contest. Will it be the run-heavy play style of Los Angeles that leads them to a victory, or will the recently surging Browns carry the momentum and walk away victorious? I have analyzed both squads below and identified who I’m siding with. Keep reading to see who you should add to your bet slip.

The biggest move of the Los Angeles Chargers’ offseason was the hiring of former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh has a proven winning track record and has brought his run-heavy, hard-nosed play style to LA and currently has the Chargers at 4-3 on the season. This record sees them placed 3rd in the AFC West, but with their upcoming stretch of games, every win will be important. Coming off of a dominant win against the Saints, the Chargers now shift their focus to Cleveland. As I mentioned, the Chargers implement a very run-centric offensive game plan from week to week, yet their offensive stats leave a little to be desired. Behind the resurgence of JK Dobbins, Los Angeles averages 117.1 rushing yards per game and uses this style to control the clock and limit opponents’ ability to possess the ball. Dobbins has racked up 535 rushing yards on the year and scored 4 times. Quarterback Justin Herbert has also been quite efficient on the year in his more limited passing role and currently boasts an 8 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio, which highlights the emphasis the Chargers place on ball security. The receiving core is thin, but rookie Ladd McConkey had a breakout two-touchdown performance last week that LA hopes to build on. Defensively, the Chargers are the number one scoring defense, holding opponents to an average of just 13 points per game. This unit also ranks in the top 10 in total yards allowed, passing yards, and 3rd down defense.

Up until last week, the Cleveland Browns had very little hope for their 2024 season. After the season-ending injury to quarterback Deshaun Watson, Cleveland turned to journeyman Jameis Winston. In his first game as a starter this year, Winston led Cleveland to a surprising victory over the Baltimore Ravens and showed his ability to drive the ball downfield and give the Browns a boost in the passing attack. Even with the departure of Amari Cooper, Cleveland saw pass catchers Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku step up and prove to be reliable targets moving forward. The return of running back Nick Chubb has been a welcomed addition, and while he is still building up his workload, I would expect his role to continue to grow each week. The main strength of the Browns this season, even with their 2-6 record, has been their defensive group. This unit is highly proficient at defending 3rd down opportunities and only has allowed their opposition to convert at a 31.1% rate. Cleveland is also able to get after the quarterback and disrupt any offensive game plan, but there is no doubt that they will benefit from better offensive play. They are currently ranked 12th against the pass and 18th against the run, but if they are able to stay in competitive games, they should see a boost to these statistics moving forward.

My Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)

As crazy as it may seem, I see this game going over the total. I don’t think that the line has been properly set for the resurgence of the Browns’ passing game, and while he is effective, Jameis Winston is also prone to turnovers, which will leave the Chargers with short-field opportunities. The breakout performance of Ladd McConkey is something LA will want to build on, and I think Herbert will find a way to continue to establish that connection here in week 9. Cleveland will continue to build momentum, and the Chargers will be able to effectively run and pick their spots for shots downfield through the air. 44 is a very achievable number; don’t overthink it.