Chargers vs. Broncos Pick: Who covers at Mile High?

The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High on Sunday in an AFC West divisional battle. The Chargers are reeling, coming off another loss, but showing some better form under interim coach Giff Smith in a 24-22 loss to the Bills. The Broncos saw their season take a hit last week in a 26-23 loss to the Patriots. Two straight losses now have Denver sitting at 7-8 and needing some things to line up to even have a shot at the postseason. Who can get it done this week in Mile High?

Chargers Any Better?

There were some good signs last week, with Buffalo needing some things to go right to pull out the win. It’s far from ideal, with a late-season coaching change serving as a testament to how sideways the season has gotten for the Bolts. Easton Stick is a limited talent at QB and with Keenan Allen’s status still in doubt and it being iffy, he’ll be 100% even if he’s in there; this offense has their work cut out for them, even against a Denver defense that has lost its way the last few weeks. We saw some extra energy than what had been the case on both sides of the ball from the Chargers last week, but the level of their form really had nowhere to go but up with the slide they were on.

For the Chargers, you hope Stick can have a decent game. He’s put up some yardage through the air in two games, even without Allen. Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, and the rest are not a tantalizing group, but maybe this isn’t a bad spot. Denver put a lot of energy into resuscitating their season after a putrid start, winning five straight to put themselves in the picture. Losing two straight and three of four, have they hit a wall where we now see the flip side of that near-monumental turnaround? Or do they have another push left in them?

Other than a Denver offense that can hit a wall on any given day, you have to wonder what’s going on with the Denver defense, allowing 68 combined points in their last two games. We’re starting to see their ability to stop the run wane a little, with their pass defense less on-point than what we saw a few precious weeks prior. In other words, if this Chargers’ offense maybe has a little more push with the player-friendly Smith getting better results, maybe they can get some business done this week, even in Mile High. If the Patriots could do it…

A Brief Look Back

On December 10, the Broncos came into SoFi and pinned a 24-7 win on the Chargers. Easton Stick saw his first action in that game with Herbert going down, with a lot of pieces the same from that game. It was a forgettable and non-competitive encounter, the second to the last straw that broke the camel’s back for head coach Brandon Staley. The Chargers weren’t moving the ball well, with Denver getting a decent game from Russell Wilson, with Javonte Williams and Courtland Sutton getting into the end zone.

How Will Denver Bounce Back?

A different wrinkle in this equation is that Sean Payton, somewhat surprisingly, has benched Russell Wilson, with Jarrett Stidham getting the start in this game. Without totally breaking down the wisdom of that move, what message does it send to the Broncos, who are still not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention? Is it somewhat of a white flag? Or will a new face behind center give way to some better energy on that side of the ball? And with Courtland Sutton a possibility to miss time with a concussion, the Chargers will be seeing a Denver offense this week with a bit of a different look.

We’ve seen the Broncos this season cover the whole gamut, from sacrificial lambs getting a 70-spot hung on them earlier in the season to a team on a five-game winning streak that seemed to turn things around. But where on the spectrum do they fall this week? With the change at QB, three losses in four games, and depreciating returns on the defensive side of the ball, is it possible they descend to a level closer to what we saw in the first third of the season? Are they maybe extra deflated after working their way back into relevance only to see it all melt-away, with these last games more being something they just want to get through? Will these things be less visible with the dysfunctional Chargers coming into town, or will the Bolts seize upon this opportunity, play like they did against Buffalo, and give this Broncos team a run for their money this week? It’s a game with a lot of moving pieces and a lot to take into account.

Take the Points

This is not an easy move to make—getting behind the Chargers on the road against a team that beat them at home by 17 several weeks ago. And it’s not like the Chargers’ personnel situation elicits a ton of hope, either. It’s just with the energy they showed last week, the current state of the sideways Denver defense, and Stidham being in at QB, we might not be seeing a great version of the Broncos this week. And sure, it’s iffy whether the Chargers are even in the spot to take advantage, but I think they hang in there and cover the spread on Sunday. I’ll take the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers plus 3 points.