Chargers at Broncos Best Bet: AFC West Showdown in Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 6

Date/Time: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 4:05PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers come to Mile High on Sunday for an AFC West showdown against the Denver Broncos. For the Chargers, they are coming off the bye, which they are hoping addressed some concerns. After a 2-0 start, they’ve dropped their last two straight, scoring just ten points in each of those games. Unfortunately for them, they’re not running into the same Denver team we saw earlier in the season that was struggling. Now, they’re on the heels of three straight wins, including an eye-opening 34-18 win over the Raiders last week to go to 3-2. Will they keep it rolling this week or run into trouble with their longtime divisional foes?

What to Make of Denver?

Maybe Sean Payton and this squad have tapped into something. It’s still not easy to explain. As large underdogs to Tampa, they dominated 26-7. Then they beat the Jets in another upset before dominating the Raiders. Some of these teams they’ve beaten have issues, but some of these results are still from left field and they’ve been fruitful from a betting perspective, as well. It’s just that their recent success hasn’t followed the normal script, namely in how their offense doesn’t seem very good. QB Bo Nix has more interceptions than TDs, they aren’t running the ball well, and they haven’t really broken out aerially.

Still, with coaching, team play, a rookie QB getting more comfortable, and a defense that can really crank up the heat, maybe it’s not so difficult to understand. This “D” is no joke, and opposing offenses are not having good days against this bunch. That could continue this week with what has been an off-key Chargers offense. The bye better have been put to good use both in the departments of overall team-health and offensive planning, because this will not be a breeze. That Denver secondary is really showing its teeth, led by a true stud corner in Patrick Surtain, II. We’ve seen their pass-rush take over games in spots. And while we don’t want to overreact to a good three-game window, they’re a team where you have to go out of your way to point out what they do well, as it doesn’t really leap off the page or the screen.

Make or Break for the Chargers?

It’s still early, but for a positive start to evaporate into a prolonged offensive malaise like this should have the alarm bells sounding. And sure, having Justin Herbert behind center hobbling around doesn’t help, especially with what looks to be a crew of offensive players that lacks the firepower of previous seasons. A diminished Herbert isn’t going to work, so maybe the bye-week brings with it a more vital and nimble Herbert. Whether they can get running back JK Dobbins on the right track is questionable against a Denver defense that is really doing a good job curtailing running backs. If that develops and Herbert is reduced more or less to trying to connect with Ladd McConkey and Quintin Johnston against this Denver secondary, things could get difficult.

Still, there’s a lot of talent on this Chargers’ defense. Even with the lack of support they’re getting on the other side of the ball, they’ve still managed to allow only 50 total points in four games. They have talent across all areas of this defense. Denver might find running the ball to be difficult again. Nix will have a talented pass-rush with which to contend. A playmaking secondary could prey on what has been a pedestrian Denver aerial attack so far this season. We don’t want to get too hung up on the Denver defense and how they can put a crimp in the Chargers’ style this week. Because the flip side of that coin isn’t exactly promising for Denver. And in a game like that, if looking for one team to maybe overcome it, why pick Bo Nix and this offense over Justin Herbert and his weapons?

What to Expect

It’s clear that up until this point, each team’s respective strong-suit is their defense. It’s easy to over-simplify that, as games that appear to exist along those lines often don’t play out that way. Denver and Nix are showing signs of more life on offense, while the week off and better health for Herbert could have him looking more like his old self here soon. But that total (currently at 36) really tells the story of two defenses, each pitted against offensive units that can be tied up in knots when facing this level of resistance. On the one hand, you might tend to favor the Chargers’ offense, as at least they showcase a quarterback with a proven track record. But with the stoutness and big-play ability of Denver, with them being at home, I’m not sure low-rating them this week is the right move.

Take the Points

With how each team is currently playing, there seems to be some public image figuring into this spread, where Denver is just a team that is easy to overlook, especially with their offense in such a state under the stewardship of a rookie QB who has struggled in spots. In a defensive battle where points might be scant, I feel OK backing this Denver defense at home, getting points to boot. I’m going with the Broncos this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 3 points.

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