Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins Pick

Carolina Panthers (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
When: October 14, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
TV: FOX
By: Rick Wise

Point Spread: CAR +1/WAS -1
Over/Under: 45
Power Ratings: WAS -1

Takeaways From Week 5

Carolina’s 33-31 victory over the Giants was equal parts good and bad. Most importantly, the Panthers moved to 3-1 after a 63-yard field goal from Graham Gano, keeping them deadlocked with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. The positives came in large part from the defensive side of the ball, where the Panther defense didn’t allow New York to convert a single third down in seven tries. Throw in Saquon Barkley being held to 48 yards rushing on five carries and safety Mike Adams picking off Eli Manning twice and you could conclude that Carolina had a pretty successful day on that side of the ball.

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But then, several stat lines refute how good a day the Panthers actually had defensively, beginning with allowing the Giants to pile up 432 total yards. Yes, they made Barkley a non-factor and conceded just 50 total yards rushing but for the second week in a row the Panthers allowed a quarterback to throw for over 300 yards. Manning finished with 326 yards and two touchdowns. The secondary also failed to keep a lid on Odell Beckham Jr., who caught 8 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, and even threw a 57-yard touchdown pass.

The Redskins were in the wrong place at the wrong time Monday night for the 43-19 beatdown they suffered at the hands of Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Brees came into the game needing just 201 yards to become the NFL’s all-time passing leader and, being home at the Superdome, his getting that record was a foregone conclusion from the start. What wasn’t expected, however, was how little resistance the Skins would provide. The Saints were allowed to rack up 447 total yards and convert 27 first downs.

The Skins themselves were anemic on offense. It all starts with Alex Smith and a performance that was essentially the polar opposite of his counterpart’s. Smith finished 23-of-39 for 275 yards and 1 interception and a dismal 69.9 passer rating. But subpar stats don’t tell the whole story. A number of Smith’s passes were completely off target and he even short-armed a couple. But for as bad as Smith was, the Washington defense was even worse.

The Historicals

This is a relatively new matchup as the Skins and the Panthers have only squared off 13 times to date, with their first meeting coming in 1995. Washington leads the series 7-6 but the Panthers have dominated as of late, winning the last five meetings and six of the last seven dating back to 2003.

Injury Concerns

For the Panthers, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are TE Greg Olsen (foot), LB Jared Norris (toe), and C Ryan Kalil (shoulder).

For the Redskins, listed as questionable for Sunday are TE Vernon Davis (hamstring), G Shaun Lauvao (calf), RB Chris Thompson (ribs), WR Jos Doctson (heel), S Troy Apke (hamstring). WR Paul Richardson is listed as doubtful for Sunday after suffering a knee injury against the Saints and RB Adrian Peterson is scheduled to undergo a MRI Tuesday after he sustained a shoulder injury against the Saints. His status for Sunday is questionable.

When the Panthers Have the Ball

That the Panthers are 3-1 with the 27th-ranked total offense and the 25th-ranked passing offense is something of a minor miracle. But it’s also a testament to their ground game (which by the way is tops in the NFL at 154 yards per outing), thanks to Chrisitan McCaffrey, the league’s 10th-ranked rushing leader, and a quarterback that doubles as one of the best runners in the game in Cam Newton. It’s interesting that on paper, the Skins are one of the best defenses in the league but against the Saints Monday night they easily looked like one of the worst. At least in terms of pass defense. This could be where Newton pads his passing stats a little as it should be hard for him or McCaffrey to do much on the ground against this Skins front four. They rank 6th against the run, allowing just 92.5 per contest.

When the Redskins Have the Ball

The Washington offense has been relatively stagnant through four games, and it’s reflected in the fact that they rank 29th in the league in total offense and 20th in passing offense. Alex Smith has at least put up average numbers, throwing for 1,042 yards and over 200 yards every time out but he’s not getting the ball in the end zone. The loss to the Saints Monday night was ugly and it encapsulated this offense’s struggles. They’re just not doing enough to be able to keep pace with good or even decent offenses. The Panthers defense may or may not change that, as they own the NFL’s 4th-ranked total defense and its 8th-ranked rushing defense but also its 26th-ranked passing defense. So, if the Skins have any shot at all, it’ll be on Smith’s arm. And as we’ve seen so far this season, that’s a roll of the dice.

Betting Trends

• Carolina is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 games
• Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
• Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 games on the road
• Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
• Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 games when playing Washington
• Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
• Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 8 games
• Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games at home
• Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
• Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games when playing Carolina
• Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
• Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

Weather Report

Great football weather is expected for this one with temperatures around 60 degrees under partly cloudy skies with 55 percent humidity and 5 mph winds

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Rick Wise’s Pick

It’s hard to believe in the Skins after they all but laid down for Drew Brees and the Saints Monday night. But even if you chalk up the blowout loss to Brees being at the height of his powers, the Washington offense still got its turn and they were awful. And if it comes down to offense, an average Cam Newton, which he’s been this season, dwarfs an average Alex Smith. The points and Carolina are the play.