Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans Analysis & Pick

Carolina Panthers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday – September 29th -1:00pm EST
Where: NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
TV: FOX

Point Spread: CAR +4.5 / HOU -4.5 (Mybookie)

Over/Under Total: 47

CAROLINA PANTHERS AND HOUSTON TEXANS PREVIEW:

Sunday on Fox, the Carolina Panthers will travel into Houston to take on the Texans. The Panthers enter with a record of 1-2 and sit in a tie with Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the NFC South. Houston, through three games, has a 2-1 W/L mark and is tied with Indianapolis in the AFC South. Both of these teams are competing in very winnable divisions. The NFC South has been bitten with the injury bug for New Orleans and Carolina while the Falcons and Buccaneers continue to underperform. As for the Texans in the AFC South, that division is just bad….okay maybe not BAD, but there is not one team in the AFC South that anyone would consider a true AFC Title Contender. In week three, Carolina beat the Arizona Cardinals by a score of 38-20 and Houston took down the San Die…oops…the Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 27-20. The Texans come into this game on Sunday as 4.5 point home favorites while the total points are set at 47 combined.

WEATHER INFORMATION:

NRG Stadium has a retractable roof and could potentially be open depending on the temperature come game time. Forecasts are calling for a humid and cloudy day with temperatures ranging from 78 to 90 degrees. With that said, regardless if the roof is open or closed, neither team should be affected by the weather.

HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING CAROLINA AND HOUSTON:

Something I find very intriguing is that no one is giving Carolina a shot to win this game. The ESPN Predictor has Houston as almost an 80% favorite to win the game straight up while the public betting action also likes the Texans to cover the 4.5. As of Wednesday evening, 66% of the betting action was on Houston to get the win and cover while just 34% liked the Carolina Panthers. Yes, there are lots of questions around the Panthers right now, especially since Cam Newton has been ruled out for an unknown amount of time, but something tells me that this game is not so cut and dry. I have a gut feeling this game will be much closer than most expect.

More Picks: Expert NFL & College Football Picks each week!

WHY THE CAROLINA PANTHERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD ON SUNDAY:

Yeah, I said it…I am taking the Carolina Panthers this weekend. Hell, to be honest, I like Carolina to win the game. Why? It’s just one of those games where many people overlook it thinking one team is the absolute clear cut favorite, but I can tell you, that is not the case. Yes, Cam Newton is out but truthfully, that is not a bad thing. Cam has absolutely sucked for the better part of the last year. Is it because the league is catching up to him, or is it the injuries that seem to keep piling on this guy? I think it is more so the injuries than anything else and I also feel Cam attempting to play through the injuries, which is very noble, was hurting the Panthers rather than lifting them up. Last week in Arizona quarterback Kyle Allen did nothing but impress. Allen passed for over 260 yards and four touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey added another 150 or so yards on the ground. The Carolina offense was clicking more than it has in quite some time. As for Houston, although they are 2-1, they have been a tad up and down this season too, especially offensively. The Texans passing offense is ranked a poor 21st in the NFL, but their rushing attack is top ten. Carolina after three games has the number two passing defense in all of the NFL. Yes, their run defense ranks nowhere near the top, but I like the Panthers to sell out and stop the run while letting their DBs play man to man on the outside and give Deshaun Watson problems finding the open man. This game will be competitive; trust me. The matchup not only has the makings for Carolina to keep it close, I genuinely believe the Panthers can win this game…and I am a Falcons fan that despises Carolina, but I think the public opinion of Cam Newton being out is tilting the line just a bit too much. Kyle Allen is a very worthy backup…he proved it last weekend.

HOW THE CAROLINA AND HOUSTON GAME WILL PLAY OUT ON SUNDAY:

I am telling you, Carolina is going to win OUTRIGHT. The game will be very physical, and both teams will try and establish a good run game to help the play-action passing for both QBs. With both teams relying heavily on the run, I have more faith in Christian McCaffrey than any running back that Houston can throw out there. I see a pretty low scoring affair early in this one with Carolina making a huge play late in the fourth quarter to pull off a 23-21 win over the Texans. Very ballsy pick, I know, but watch….It is going to happen.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE CAROLINA PANTHERS TO GO ON THE ROAD AND COVER THE 4.5 POINT SPREAD IN HOUSTON!